The Courier & Advertiser (Angus and Dundee)
‘Do nothing’ approach to Brexit is dangerous
Warning: Firms should start to plan for contracting labour market
If we continue on the road we are on, the UK will leave the European Union in less than eight months’ time.
What that actually means is still not quite clear. With never ending speculation on transition periods, hard borders, tariffs, it is no wonder that so many have lost interest in Brexit and are opting for a “wait and see” approach.
But for so many businesses, the “do nothing” option is potentially the most dangerous.
Although now quite late in the day, it is important that businesses start to plan ahead and envisage how they will meet the potential labour and skills shortages that everyone expects to see post-brexit.
We already know the Brexit downturn in EU labour has hit the agricultural sector.
European seasonal workers have simply not come back and that has already created very real difficulties for those trying to harvest crops.
Some in that sector have been forced to try and combat these immediate challenges by looking at how they remunerate seasonal workers and by trying to improve the accommodation offering to workers.
The simple market economics model of supply and demand is already pushing labour wages up slightly and that will have an impact on business profits and ultimately, on the price that we as consumers pay for our products in the supermarkets.
With record low unemployment across the country, the labour market is already tighter than it has been in decades.
Without migration feeding into that, the talent and labour pools will simply contract.
This is a very real possibility that businesses across all sectors need to plan for.
Whether it is through investment in automation, upskilling and reskilling existing staff or through thinking
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While hoping for the best, businesses need to start planning for the worst JAMIE KERR
innovatively around things like shift patterns and working hours, those who plann now will reap the rewards later.
Every sector body in the country is busy making the case as to why their own sector is particularly more important than all the others when it comes to the need for international labour and skills post-brexit.
The agricultural sector hopes for some form of Seasonal Agricultural Worker Scheme to enable the sector to continue accessing overseas labour.
The care sector is speaking about the challenge of being able to deliver social care without foreign labour.
The education and finance sectors talk about the importance of attracting the brightest and the best global talent.
The construction, hospitality, technology, healthcare and public sectors are all presuming they will have some form of exemption in any new migration system.
The Prime Minister takes the view the public want to reduce net migration and she is determined to deliver that.
She recently reiterated that EU free movement of people will end in the UK.
Whist hoping for the best, businesses need to start planning for the worst.
Only by proper scenario planning will our businesses be prepared to face the challenges that lie further down the road.