The Courier & Advertiser (Angus and Dundee)
May tries to seal deal with Scots
Assessments by Bank of England and Whitehall warn of huge financial impact on Britain
Prime Minister Theresa May was in Scotland yesterday as she attempted to sell her Brexit deal to voters. As she visited a factory in Renfrewshire, the Bank of England issued a warning about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Separate assessments from Whitehall and the Bank of England have painted a grim picture of the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy.
The bank warned Britain could be tipped into a recession worse than the financial crash, with an 8% cut in GDP, unemployment surging by as much as 7.5% and house prices falling by almost one-third.
The unemployment rate would rise to 7.5%, inflation would surge to 6.5% and interest rates would rocket to 5.5%.
House prices are forecast to decline 30% and the pound would fall by 25% to less than parity against both the US dollar and the euro, according to the bombshell report.
Governor Mark Carney said: “These are scenarios, not forecasts.
“They illustrate what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen.”
Meanwhile, a cross-government analysis found the UK economy would be 9.3% smaller after 15 years if Britain leaves without a deal and falls back on World Trade Organisation rules.
While the UK economy would continue to grow after withdrawal, Britain would be worse off under any Brexit scenario than if it stayed in the EU, the government paper found.
Withdrawal under the plans set out in the government’s White Paper would leave GDP up to 3.9% lower by 2035.
Public sector net borrowing could be forced up by as much as £119 billion by a no-deal withdrawal and up to £26.6bn under a scenario similar to Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans.
In the House of Commons, Mrs May accused Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party of wanting to “cause chaos, frustrate Brexit (and) overturn the will of the British people” by backing a fresh vote in what she said would be “a betrayal of the many by the few”.
However, Mr Corbyn accused her “shambolic” government of trying to force her Brexit deal through the Commons on the back of a “wish-list” plan and without allowing MPS access to its full legal advice.
The bank’s report came under fire from a former member of its monetary policy committee, Andrew Sentance, who described it as “highly speculative and extreme” and said it would “add to the view that the bank is getting unnecessarily involved in politics”.
Meanwhile, Mrs May hit back at claims she is too “feart” to go up against Nicola Sturgeon in a TV debate on Brexit, as the prime minister insisted her withdrawal deal will be “good for the UK as a whole”.
With the country’s departure from the European Union looming in just four months, she also restated her opposition to any prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum.
“One thing we do know is what would be bad for the Scottish economy would be taking Scotland out of the UK,” said the PM who was visiting the Scottish Leather Group in Bridge of Weir.
However, she stressed that as the planned TV debate with Mr Corbyn was “about a vote that’s going to take place in the House of Commons”, SNP leader Ms Sturgeon had no part to play in it.
Downing Street earlier said that as the first minister was not an MP she would not be involved in the “meaningful vote” on the Withdrawal Agreement on December 11.
Ms Sturgeon responded by tweeting: “Neither are all the members of the public that the PM is currently appealing to here on her ‘tour’ of the country.”
The first minister attacked the prime minister the day after a Scottish Government paper warned the draft arrangements for the UK’S departure from the European Union could result in a “loss equivalent to £1,610 per person in Scotland compared to EU membership by 2030”.