The Courier & Advertiser (Angus and Dundee)
SNP’S language problems
Three-term Boris. Scandal-proof and on a roll, a decade of Johnson may lie ahead. Assuming Brexit gets done, then it will define the next decade or more. Are we more or less successful, have we shed the EU or are we still in its thrall?
Which makes it likely the Tories will stick with the man who did it. As for a challenge from Labour, that seems remote.
A quarter of Scots voters will be happy with this – they voted for Bojo, they have long discounted his charlatanism. That Johnson has so clearly said no to Indyref2 is deeply reassuring to them.
Not just a no, but talk of the union and of spending money. If the first part is old hat, the second is not. A Tory government that redistributed UK wealth would command all it surveyed.
What that means for Scots is not clear. The SNP won an awful lot of votes. That England makes Scotland do things it doesn’t want to is very hard to rebuff.
Thus far the SNP reaction to this has been poor. Sturgeon tells us we are the abused partner. It doesn’t feel right.
We are not “bludgeoned” and certainly not “imprisoned”. To the 25% who voted blue, a further 20% went for Labour – of the big parties, the union did well.
These voters will not like to be told their minds are damaged and suffering from Stockholm syndrome. The SNP has a real problem with language.
Further more, it has a problem with ego. For any regular party to feature its leader with their thumbs up in front of rows of MPS is acceptable – for the SNP it carries the whiff of hubris. The nats are servants of a cause, never its champion. That’s a role for the people.
If we aren’t imprisoned, and we don’t find the SNP and Scotland interchangeable, but are interested in the democratic debate, what are we? Labour voters.
Simple arithmetic says 45% voted for independence and 45% for the union (Tory plus Labour). Given that the rising Tory vote is not going to shift, what matters is the diminishing Labour one.
The SNP came out of the blocks on Friday pointing to Labour Party figures who are now in favour of Indyref2. It was a bid to get momentum behind the result, but has not caught on.
There is always some post-election frenzy, but this time we were all too tired to get on board.
However, that doesn’t change the fact the red 20% are the battleground for the union.
I know dyed-in-the-wool Labour voters who supported Stephen Gethins’ attempt to hold North East Fife. Think the road to Damascus, then dual carriageway it. However this wasn’t a conversion, but a reluctant, considered shift. If the constitution is everything, and nationalism the mood, then better pick a side.
In broad terms, these voters are over 50 and bruised by decades of argument with the nats. Simply asserting that we are held against our will and Boris is a Tory won’t be enough to swing them.
They know the independence argument boils down to more cuts in the short term and worry that the SNP refuses to engage on provisional spending in year one of “freedom”.
Everyone gets prizes in Scotland, while the NHS crumbles, education declines and the poor get little.
What’s more, we are likely to see the north of England rewarded with spending. Boris promises cash for infrastructure and more and to renege on that would damage his political strategy. Thus the union might begin to look quite attractive.
The SNP needed to act more Boris-like. Johnson recognised that England was changing. Scotland is too. Old loyalties are dying, new attitudes abound and there is a distinct confidence.
This needs to be celebrated and rewarded. A Scotland not moaning, but singing.
The opportunity to boost the nation, and win over Labour voters, and therefore build momentum behind the democratic injustice of winning elections but losing in Westminster, comes in the form of consequentials.
These are the monies which come to Scotland when extra spending occurs in England. The Tory Party is promising £3 billion in such money for Holyrood in the near future.
My fear is this money will disappear into the budget while the Scottish Government prop up a version of the welfare state which England no longer believes in. Admirable as that may be (and it may not be – reform is always needed), voters will not see the benefit.
Instead the £3bn should fund a radical transformation of Scotland.
A home for everybody? Electric cars for every household? New roads in the Highlands? Nationalise nursery education? Whatever the policy is it must be big, be visible and be the vision of a “better” Scotland in solid form.
As Boris has shown, reward your support, make people feel good and talk positive.
“Sturgeon tells us we are the abused partner. It doesn’t feel right