The Courier & Advertiser (Angus and Dundee)
Academic warns UK is ‘clearly’ not ready for increased flooding risk
WEATHER: Claim comes after country battered by storms Ciara and Dennis
Climate change is driving more heavy rainfall in winter storms and increasing the risk of flooding for which the UK is “clearly” not ready, experts have warned.
The country took a battering from heavy rain and strong winds as Storm Dennis swept in over the weekend, just a week after Storm Ciara.
More than a month’s rain fell in 48 hours in some places and homes, roads and railways were flooded.
Research has shown the conditions in a previous winter storm, Desmond in 2015, which brought very heavy rain to parts of the UK and caused widespread flooding, were made 40% more likely due to climate change.
In the wake of the latest storms, Dr Michael Byrne, lecturer in climate science at St Andrews University and research fellow at Oxford University, said more water in the atmosphere is “an entirely inevitable consequence of climate change”.
“When they come, they bring more rain, 100% for certain. MICHAEL BYRNE
“When you warm the planet, the atmosphere holds more water,” he told the PA news agency.
“In many parts of the world, including the UK, rising temperatures go hand in hand with more rain.”
He said the jury is still out on whether climate change will strengthen or weaken the high winds in storms such as Ciara and Dennis, but “when the storms come there will be more rain associated with them”.
“These storms are nothing new, going back 100 years, but, because we are now more than 1C warmer as a whole versus pre-industrial times, every degree means 7% more water in the atmosphere and more rain in these heavy rain events.”
If temperatures rise by 3C, which is what efforts to cut emissions already outlined by countries currently puts the world on track for, storms could be bringing around 20% more rain than they would without climate change.
Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at Reading University, said: “These types of events are most likely a taster of what is to come and we should be paying very close attention to that.”
And she warned: “Clearly, we are not ready for them.”