History suggests hefty package of tax increases is on the way

Rishi Sunak could be tempted to announce a hefty package of tax rises in his Budget speech on Wednesday, if history is anything to go by.

The first Budget immediately after a general election has traditionally been used by a chancellor to introduce a host of tax increases.

The Budgets that followed the 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015 elections all saw a jump in the amount of tax levied by the government – some of them ranking among the biggest tax-raising Budgets of the past 50 years.

Topping the list is the Budget of March 1993.

Coming 11 months after the 1992 election, it saw thenchancellor Norman Lamont unveil tax rises adding up to a massive £26.3 billion (when converted into 2019-20 prices).

Five of the top 10 tax-raising Budgets since 1970 have all followed general elections, according to the PA news agency’s analysis of figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

As well as Mr Lamont’s Budget, they also include Gordon Brown’s Budgets of April 2002 (which increased taxes by £17.0bn) and July 1997 (£11.2bn), George Osborne’s Budget of June 2010 (£10.2bn), and Denis Healey’s Budget of March 1974 (£18.5bn).

Only one post-election Budget in recent years has bucked the trend for tax rises: Philip Hammond’s Budget of November 2017, which saw a £2.4bn net decrease.

The Budget immediately after an election victory is arguably the ideal time to put up taxes.

A chancellor knows they are at the furthest point away from the next election, and also in most need of new income to fund manifesto promises.