Scientists advise year of isolation

Social isolation measures will need to be in place for most of a year at least in order to control the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, according to experts’ advice to the government.

Scientists also advised ministers that, while the severity of measures could alternate during the period, the “stricter” measures would need to be enforced for at least half of the year.

The government published the advice yesterday – a day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he expects the tide to be turned in the fight against Covid-19 within 12 weeks.

A report by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling states: “It was agreed that the addition of both general social distancing and school closures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would be likely to control the epidemic when kept in place for a long period.

“These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.”

UK researchers are likely to test a coronavirus vaccine on humans as early as next month as countries around the world race to find a treatment for the new pandemic, it is understood.

Safety trials are due to begin in April as a drug developed by Oxford University is anticipated to be given the green light to move to human testing well ahead of the usual time frame for drug development.

Researchers expect the emergency work will be accelerated as similar vaccines developed for more than 10 different diseases have been proved safe in human trials with thousands of subjects aged from one week to 90 years old.

Jenner Institute director Professor Adrian Hill told the Guardian: “We will follow all standard trial safety requirements, but as soon as we have a vaccine that’s working, we anticipate there will be an accelerated pathway to get it deployed to save lives.”