‘Holyrood election delay might be UK’S decision’

Sir Jo h n Curtice predicts the upcoming Holyrood election will only be delayed if the decision is backed by authorities in England and Wales.

He believes a “coordinated” Uk-wide agreement would be the “preference” if there is to be any move to postpone the Ma y 6 Scottish Parliament poll.

Prominent figures have cast doubt over that date, although First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday morning she would still “hope and expect” it to go ahead as planned.

The Strathclyde University politics professor believes a short delay is now more likely than before new restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid-19 were agreed, but said to “keep an eye on the view in London and Cardiff, as well as in Edinburgh”.

As well as the Holyrood vote, May 6 is also the date for rescheduled local and mayoral elections in England and the next Welsh Senedd contest.

Sir John said: “I think, in the end, it will be a UKwide decision because there are elections across Great Britain scheduled for May, some of which have already been delayed for 12 months.

“Wa i t i n g until Ju n e might be something they would agree on, but given a lot of elections in England are already 12 months overdue, I suspect there will be a reluctance to any greater variation.

“The odds of June may have improved, but delaying beyond summer would still be regarded as quite a substantial decision. Scotland can make its own decision in practice, as can Wales, but I suspect there would be a preference to make a co-ordinated decision.”

Prof Curtice, a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, said there would be “all sorts of implications for broadcasters and the political parties” if there was a delay in one part of the UK but not others.

He added: “It’s also true if it is a decision effectively

made jointly by Conservative, Labour and SNP ministers, nobody can accuse anybody of trying to fiddle with the timetable for political advantage.”

The SNP is riding high in the polls in Scotland and the party is tipped for a resounding victory in the next Scottish election.

Prof Curtice believes the party would prefer to avoid a delay, although he said a postponement would not guarantee any uplift in support for its rivals.

He said: “In so far as the SNP are currently ahead, it is not obviously in their interests to delay. There is nothing inevitable that says the SNP would do worse in June or in the autumn than they did in May, but still I’m sure they would prefer to go in May.”

Ms Sturgeon when asked about a potential delay said: “I see no reason at this stage why the election wouldn’t go ahead.

“I think everybody would agree is really important our democratic processes continue and that elections happen. There have been elections in many other countries over the course of the pandemic.

“The one caveat I could put on that is that we are in an uncertain position but also we’ve just passed in the Scottish Parliament contingency legislation and this should not be something for government to decide.

“This should be, more than anything, really, a cross-party consideration, and the presiding officer of the parliament has a role to play in these decisions.

“It will be an election with a difference – it may have more postal voting, there may be contingency arrangements that have to be put in place – but, if at all possible, the actual election should proceed.”

Sir John Curtice.