The Courier & Advertiser (Angus and Dundee)
New Covid strain could soon ‘overwhelm’ NHS
The Scottish Government has admitted the NHS could soon become “overwhelmed” in some areas due to the new coronavirus strain.
A report published yesterday warned that hospitals and intensive care units ( ICU) might struggle to cope even if lockdown restrictions continue.
The latest “state of the epidemic” update, which is used by the government to help determine its response to the pandemic, was released as First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed new limitations on click and collect services and takeaways.
A recent “step change” in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic was noted in the report, with the number of cases of a new variant “increasing rapidly ” in
Scotland. The proportion of cases involving the mutant strain soared from 49.7% on January 4 to 62% by Monday of this week.
“It is very likely that this strain will continue to increase in dominance in Scotland in a similar way to that already seen in London and south-east England,” the report stated.
While Scotland’s case rate had “consistently remained lower than the rest of the U K ”, and vaccinations would make a “significant difference” to NHS capacity in the weeks and months ahead, the analysis signalled that the new strain is likely to put hospitals under huge pressure in the interim.
“Given the current pattern of case numbers, we expect to see rising levels of infection impacting on hospital and ICU, which could lead to the potential of the NHS being over whelmed in some areas, even under a ‘stay at home’ scenario,” the update stated.
The number of people in hospital in Scotland increased by about 25% over the last week, with the latest data showing 107 new Covid-19 patients were admitted to ICU in the period, compared to 84 a week earlier.
At the peak, in April, a total of 160 patients were admitted to ICU.
Announcing a tightening of restrictions in Holyrood, Ms Sturgeon said: “The number of new cases is still far too high and, of course, all of this is having a significant and se vere impact on our health service.
“With the number of people being infected every day remaining as high as it is, the pressure on the NHS is likely to increase further and continue for some time.”
The first minister added: “We must continue to do e ver ything possible to reduce case numbers – this is essential to relieve the pressure on our health service and also to save lives.”
Hospital intensive care units (ICUS) also face being overwhelmed in England unless coronavirus rates are brought under control, Boris Johnson admitted.
The prime minister said there was a “very substantial” risk that ICUS would be unable to cope if numbers ke p t increasing.
Mr Jo h n s o n’s stark warning came as the daily reported death toll reached a new high, with 1,564 fatalities recorded within 28 days of a positive test. The latest figures mean the grim milestone of more than 100,000 deaths involving coronavirus has now been passed in the UK, according to official data.
The prime minister told MPS : “If you ask me when do we think that the ICU capacity is likely to be overtopped, I can’t give you a prediction for that.
“But all I can say is that the risk is very substantial and we have to keep the pressure off the NHS, and the only way to do that is to follow the current lockdown.”
The latest official figures on the coronavirus dashboard show more than 36,000 people are in hospital with coronavirus, including almost 3,500 on ventilation.