Cases of Covid in Scotland ‘are being missed’

Covid-19 case numbers in Scotland are being underestimated by more than half, according to a leading expert in infectious disease.

Professor Mark Woolhouse said data from SPI-M, a sub group of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), shows there is a “persistent problem in Scotland and indeed the whole of the UK with missing Covid-19 cases”.

Prof Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University, said official figures show Scotland had around 2,000 cases per day in late December and early January.

But data from SPI-M and the Office for National Statistics shows the true figure to be 4,000-5,000 daily infections.

Prof Woolhouse said: “What those numbers imply is that we’re underestimating in Scotland the size of our epidemic in terms of case numbers by roughly 50 or 60%. That’s quite a large disparity, and it’s a problem.”

He said as these infectious people will not be having their contacts traced and may not be selfisolating, it is “handicapping our ability to control the spread of infection”.

By expanding the range of coronavirus symptoms that people should report, “you can pick up perhaps at least half of the missing cases”, he said.

There is a “need for much wider testing, mass testing, basically, in order to find these missing cases”, he added.

Mr Woolhouse was speaking at an online symposium by the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh. He warned the country should be preparing for “some kind of third wave” next winter.