Phoney war set to get real

Anew chapter awaits in the phoney war of independence between Bute House and Number 10. Theresa May has so far been emphatic in her rejection of Nicola Sturgeon’s demands for another referendum.

The First Minister – buttressed by the support of the Scottish Parliament – last month requested talks to transfer the power to hold a ballot from Westminster to Holyrood. But there is no budging from May’s mantra that “now is not the time”. The secession sparring now enters a fresh phase as Ms Sturgeon prepares to announce her next steps to MSPs.

She will want to ramp up the pressure on UK ministers, who are all too aware of the gamble they are taking by refusing a second referendum in the timeframe demanded.

The SNP leader will have to balance her movement’s needs of securing another referendum in the 2018-19 period with the pitfalls associated with some of the more radical options at her disposal.

At the extreme end, there is making a unilateral declaration of independence. It is unthinkable that an operator like Ms Sturgeon, known for her cautious and pragmatic approach, would take – or even threaten – such a nuclear option. Staging a “wildcat” referendum is not being ruled out by the SNP hierarchy, but that comes laden with risks, especially as a short to medium term solution, with it likely that No voters would undermine the result by boycotting it.

The prospect of court action over Scotland’s right to hold an independence referendum was dangled by Ms Sturgeon last month, although she has said the issue must be settled politically.

Another bold move would be to call a Holyrood election, with Ms Sturgeon standing on a platform to hold a referendum once the terms of Brexit are known but before it has happened.

That would be a high-risk strategy, with it unclear whether the SNP would even match last year’s performance, in which they lost their outright majority.

The First Minister is more likely to take a steadier approach by trying to put her referendum bill through Holyrood. That would buy her time to exploit possible resentment from swing voters over London blocking Edinburgh’s will.

A Tory delay to her plebiscite timetable may damage Scotland’s EU prospects, but the opportunities that would present for building Yes support could provide the key to unlocking the constitutional impasse in Ms Sturgeon’s favour.

The First Minister is more likely to take a steadier approach

Leaders Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May will continue their sparring over Indyref2.