The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
Race to Elysee Palace is too close to call
France’s presidential election remains wide open going into tomorrow’s first round, four of the 11 candidates still having a realistic chance of replacing Francois Hollande in the Elysee Palace.
Tomorrow’s vote will see nine candidates eliminated, with two going through to the May 7 run-off, except in the unlikely event of a candidate winning the first round outright with 50% plus one of the votes.
Polls suggest centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and the farright’s Marine Le Pen are the two most likely to advance, but Gaullist candidate Francois Fillon is still in close contention, despite the “fake jobs” scandal that has dogged his campaign, while leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon has surged in the closing days of the campaign.
Thursday’s daily tracking poll in Paris Match put Mr Macron on 24%, Ms Le Pen 22.5%, Mr Fillon 19.5% and Mr Melenchon 18.5%.
The governing Socialist Party’s candidate, Benoit Hamon, is way back in fifth on 7%, traditional Socialist voters moving either toward Mr Macron, or Mr Melenchon, both former members of the movement.
Mr Hollande’s five-year term has been scarred by terror attacks that killed hundreds in Paris and Nice, and he decided last year not to seek a second term, the first time an incumbent has chosen not to defend his presidency at the ballot box since the creation of France’s Fifth Republic constitution in 1958.
Only Georges Pompidou, who died in office in 1974 at the height of his popularity, has not previously stood for a second term.
If Thursday’s poll is accurate, the second round will see both the Gaullists and Socialists eliminated, something that has never happened before.
That scenario would see the far right contest the Elysee with a newly-created centrist force, Mr Macron’s En Marche movement.
Voting begins in the French presidential election as the future of not just France, but also the European Union, teeters on a knife-edge. As campaigning entered its final moments, polls suggested the result was too close to call between far right candidate Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron.
The other two main runners, Jean-Luc Melenchon and Francois Fillon, should not be ruled out of the race entirely just yet.
As with so many recent elections, this campaign has proved anything but conventional, with signs the populist – and winning – policies of Brexit and Trump could be successful in France.
Not long ago, National Front leader Ms Le Pen would have been quickly written off, but her support for a French exit from the European Union and immigration curbs have struck the same chord seen on this side of the Channel.
Coupled with the collapse of the Socialists, her rise is steady and, for moderates, worrying.
The most recent murder of a policeman in Paris has heightened tensions and may give further weight to her arguments among wavering voters.
The top two candidates from initial voting go forward to a second stage run-off next weekend.
The result of that could prove monumental and yet another seismic political and social shift cannot be discounted.