SNP wooing EU nationals

Nicola Sturgeon’s case for independence relies on increasing the population of working age adults in Scotland.

Only by boosting public revenue through attracting more taxpayers can she begin to meaningfully chip away at what is now a £15 billion deficit in Scotland’s finances and provide a credible case for secession.

Last week’s National Records of Scotland statistics showed that while the population is increasing, it is also ageing.

A growing elderly demographic – and the services they depend on – is being sustained by a proportionally shrinking pool of workers.

Immigration is key. Luring them with free personal care and university tuition, she has actively courted the English and others in the UK to cross the border and put down roots here.

There are 400,000 people from the rest of the UK now living in Scotland. That continued flow, which of course works both ways, is vital for topping up the tax base.

But it is a double-edged sword. The assumption is that most of these have family, emotional and practical links with other parts of Britain that will turn them off the idea of a breakaway.

There is, however, another demographic that could increase Scotland’s working age population, and amid Brexit could be highly receptive to independence.

There are already 181,000 EU nationals from other countries living in Scotland and many of those voted in the 2014 referendum.

There are millions of EU citizens in the rest of the UK, not to mention the tens of millions living on the Continent.

A paper for the Scottish Centre on European Relations thinktank said that mobilising EU nationals for Yes could have a “significant outcome” for an independence vote, which Ms Sturgeon says is likely to be before 2021.

If you wanted to stay in the EU without leaving this island, your best bet would be to head to Scotland.

It is clear that there is a deadlock on the constitution, with the division not in the nationalists’ favour.

Even though there are floating voters out there – perhaps reserving judgment on Brexit – relying on the settled population to secure an independence majority seems fanciful.

Ms Sturgeon has been quick to champion the cause of EU nationals. Expect the charm offensive to step up a gear with Scotland marketed as a safe haven for EU citizens against a Tory rights grab and as the best hope for those wanting to preserve ties with Europe. It’s a numbers game after all.

Picture: Getty Images. Nicola Sturgeon will be upping the charm offensive and marketing Scotland as a safe haven.