Climate change ‘increased odds’ of northern European heatwave

Climate change made the ongoing heatwave gripping much of northern Europe more than twice as likely to occur, scientists have said.

An initial assessment of the prolonged spell of hot weather suggests rising temperatures caused by human activity increased the odds of it happening.

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution network warn that such events will become “even less exceptional” as global temperatures continue to increase.

The team used modelling to compare the likelihood of the heatwave in today’s world with the chances of it occurring in a world without the climate change caused by humans.

They examined temperatures at seven weather stations in northern Europe, including two in Finland, and one each in Denmark, the Irish Republic, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.

Analysis of temperatures from Dublin suggest man-made climate change made the heatwave an estimated two times more likely, while in Copenhagen the odds increased by a factor of five.

Dr Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, senior researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said: “We found that for the weather station in the far north, in the Arctic Circle, the current heatwave is just extraordinary – unprecedented in the historical record.”