Club runners find that time is on their side, St Andrews study shows

Age and experience are the key factors in predicting running success, new research at St Andrews University has found.

Membership of a running club, as well as having run the same race several times, were also strong indicators of whether someone would be able to accurately predict their finishing time – giving older runners the advantage over their youthful counterparts.

Dr Akira O’Connor of the university’s School of Psychology and Neuroscience found when comparing the predicted times – given when entrants signed up for the race – to their finish times, the older the runner, the more accurate their prediction was likely to be.

The most accurate age group was 46 years old and above, with 65% accurately predicting their finishing time, followed by the 31 to 45-yearold age group at 61%, with the 16 to 30-year-old age group being the worst, just 56% correctly guessing their finishing time.

The research, published in the journal PLOS ONE, also found those who declared membership of a running club, such as a Jog Scotland group or an athletics club, were significantly better at gauging their performance beforehand, with 68% accuracy compared to 56%.

In addition, those who had run the race several times before became more accurate with each race – with 66% accuracy in their first race, rising to 72% by their third attempt at the event.

The research concluded that setting unrealistic goals and failing to achieve them can be discouraging, shifting a runner’s view from a sense of achievement at finishing a half marathon to one of disappointment at not completing the race within a particular time.

Dr O’Connor said: “We can overcome this potential for disappointment by setting more realistic goals with practice or, potentially, by interacting with people who have more experience.”

The study examined information submitted by 7,211 runners when they signed up for the Alloa Half Marathon in 2009 and 2011-15.