Concern over impact of ‘no-deal’ on meat

Government wants experts to find out ‘cost implications’ of no agreement

The Scottish Government is seeking experts to investigate the impact of crashing out of the EU on one of the country’s most lucrative industries.

Officials have commissioned a report on how a no-deal Brexit will affect Scotch beef and other meat producers, as the likelihood of leaving the bloc without a trade agreement increases.

Farmers have told The Courier that falling back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, which would slap tariffs on Scotland’s top exports, would push the meat industry “into the abyss”.

NFU Scotland also expressed deep fears that a failure for the EU-UK to agree on future trade would lead to “panic deals” with countries like the US and a lowering of food standards.

A government contract has gone out to tender on the “cost implications for Scotland’s red meat sector when trading with the EU under WTO”.

The government said it is commissioning the research because there is not enough evidence on the “administrative costs and resource impacts of Scotland’s red meat sector” from trading with the continent on a no-deal basis.

Food and drink is Scotland’s top export and was valued at nearly £6 billion last year. Meat exports alone racked up £99 million for the economy.

The industry has warned it faces tariffs of 92% on exports of whole beef carcasses, which does not include extra costs associated with export certification and delays at ports.

NFU Scotland president Andrew McCornick said crashing out of the EU is a “worse-case scenario and tantamount to the kind of chaotic cliff-edge change we are desperately trying to avoid”.

Mr McCornick said time is running out for a deal that offers a “degree of certainty that businesses need”.

“With confidence increasingly fragile, we need clear positive signals about a post-Brexit future, not a no-deal that would see an industry being pushed into the abyss,” he added.

George Jamieson, a former dairy farmer who has worked for the Scottish Government, said new tariffs on imported cheeses from places like France could boost Scots products.

But Mr Jamieson, who now works for NFU Scotland, said a hard Brexit is a “really scary option” given the wider impact on the economy.

The Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers (SAMW) welcomed the Scottish Government study.

It said the industry is facing an “uncertain future” because businesses “already do not have sufficient livestock available to meet demand”.

Michael Russell, Scotland’s Brexit Secretary, said: “We are constrained by the lack of clarity on the direction of negotiations with the EU and by uncertainty about the possible outcome of that.”

NFU Scotland president Andrew McCornick has said that time is now running out for a deal that will offer the degree of certainty that Scottish businesses need for a post-Brexit future.