Effect of Brexit on livestock markets

The annual sales for breeding and store sheep and cattle have just got under way and trade for breeding gimmers and ewe lambs would appear so far to be back on the year. However, we have a few sales yet ahead of us and lambs in particular could be short in numbers, so we may yet see prices rise.

It could be argued that Brexit – so far – has been a good thing for Scotland’s livestock sector.

The weak pound has helped to boost exports, which has in turn helped to boost prices in the prime and store rings.

My feeling is that we are likely to see a similar scenario in the lamb trade in the early months of 2019 as we did in 2018, with prime hoggs in big demand – possibly even more so if numbers are scarce. If this scenario is correct, then store lambs can be bought with confidence in the next few months.

Unfortunately, what the marketplace for Scotch beef and lamb post-March 2019 will be is still uncertain.

Breeding animals bought now will not produce progeny for sale until after we have left the EU.

One thing that looks increasingly certain is that the pound is unlikely to strengthen and many economists predict the value of the pound will continue to fall. This could continue to play a positive factor in the livestock trade, with a weak pound making imports of meat to the UK uncompetitive against home-grown produce.

Beef is the most likely to benefit from this scenario, however home-produced lamb could be very attractive too – especially in a no-deal situation where deals to import from abroad have not yet established.

That aside, we should not simply look to compete on price as in many cases, even with a weak pound, we may not be able to.

There has been excellent work done in recent years by bodies like Quality Meat Scotland to grow the reputation and sales of quality-assured Scotch beef and lamb.

In the post-Brexit era, when our governments are looking to boost exports, they would be crazy to overlook the earning potential of our quality red meat sector – playing as it does as significant part in our food and drink industry success story.

The weak pound is also playing a very evident part in boosting tourism in Scotland, another driver of demand for quality meat products.

Tourism, especially in Scotland, relies heavily on our landscapes, with the green and heather-clad hills a renowned attraction. The role of farmers and their grazing sheep and cattle in the maintenance of this landscape needs no further explanation here – suffice to say that it is vital that post-Brexit government support is targeted at maintaining our hill and upland flocks and herds.

I would also go so far as to say that we need a government focus on boosting numbers, especially in the cattle herd, as the abattoir sector, in particular, is struggling to maintain critical mass and sustainable throughput.

My final thought re Brexit, and I suppose it is a tip for those selling livestock in the coming months, comes back to the emphasis on quality.

The best animals in the market will always attract the best price.

We have excellent stockmen and women in Scotland who know how to emphasise the quality of their sale stock, but now may be the time to look at how stock can be further differentiated to demonstrate quality. Buyers are increasingly looking for details such as vaccination history, EBV figures, or simply stock that are better brought out on sale day.

Whether you are buying or selling in the coming months, best of luck.

There has been excellent work done by bodies like Quality Meat Scotland to grow sales

It is vital that following Brexit support from the government is targeted at maintaining our hill and upland flocks and herds.