The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
May’s plan may just work
It’s as if he had a premonition of Brexit when Dante described the nine Circles of Hell. There are many options open to our politicians, but it’s hard to see them avoiding the inevitable flames. As I write, Theresa May is selling a deal to the Cabinet.
Plenty of people are angry, and there will be lots of noise in the media for the next few days, but with no evidence of an alternative plan, it would be rash to write May off.
The Commons has a “meaningful vote” on the deal, as enshrined in the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018.
Tory Brexiteers say they will not support Theresa May’s deal, as it doesn’t do enough to bring back powers from Brussels.
The DUP, propping up May’s government in the Commons, will not support a deal if it creates a different status for Northern Ireland to that of the rest of the UK in relation to the EU.
Labour’s position is not clear, but we know Jeremy Corbyn is itching for an election – and don’t forget the party voted to “keep all options open” at its autumn conference.
The SNP’s position is that any deal which takes the UK out of the customs union and single market will be opposed.
It appears May can only lose the meaningful vote – unless Labour back it, in the hope of casting the Tories into perpetual in-fighting.
If she does lose, the UK Government would be unable to sign up to the negotiated deal.
That failure would not stop Brexit – it would only mean Britain left the EU without a deal on March 29 2019.
To prevent this, May could ask for the leaving date to be pushed back.
There is no precedent for this and would require all 27 EU members to agree.
However, given the EU doesn’t want the UK to leave, and the issue of the UK border in Ireland being unsettled in the event of a no-deal Brexit, there might be support.
But it would infuriate Brexiteers, most likely leading to a vote of no confidence in May.
That option aside, May still faces a parliament she cannot command (if Labour vote no to the deal)
That too would lead to a vote of no confidence called by opposition parties.
If May lost a vote of no confidence, then there would a fortnight for other Tories to try to form a new government, during which time an interim leader would take charge.
Much as it would be in Tory interests to stay in power and get over the Brexit deadline, it’s hard to see who they could rally around, and what alternative plan they have.
Let us imagine they fail to agree and a general election is called.
Is that helpful to the Tories, given their division and lack of an alternative deal? No.
An election could also be called if the Commons votes with a two-thirds majority to go straight to the country.
That presumes Labour genuinely wants to test the appetite of the nation for Jeremy Corbyn.
They are not ahead in the opinion polls, do not hold a united view on Brexit and have yet to offer a different solution to the complexity around Northern Ireland which satisfies the DUP.
Nor does a general election suit the SNP.
Any UK general election in Scotland would effectively become another referendum on both the EU and
It appears May can only lose the meaningful vote – unless Labour back it
independence. That could further fracture the nationalist support base, while dragging up independence when the party does not currently have a coherent case, after the Growth Commission’s destruction of the 2014 argument.
This may explain Nicola Sturgeon’s support for a second Brexit referendum.
Yet her party is also split on that, a genuine threat to her authority.
However, a second referendum would take new legislation and at least six months to arrange – currently the UK doesn’t have that time to spare.
Even if it did, what is the question? Is it about the deal, or the basic principle?
On the first, that is a very complex thing for the electorate to digest and understand within six months.
If it’s the second, then another result backing Brexit will do nothing to resolve the negotiation complexities.
Which takes us to Scotland’s ancient parliament building, now home to the Court of Session, which has ruled that the UK Government cannot block an appeal to the European Court of Justice on the question of whether Parliament can unilaterally stop Brexit.
If the ECJ ruled that the UK parliament could stop Brexit, that only proves a point of law.
The chances of the Commons simply voting to stop Brexit seems incredibly unlikely, for the reasons above, plus the message it would send to the Brexitvoting majority in the country.
Journey through the circles of hell and it’s hard not to conclude that May’s plan may work.
She is devilishly saying that her plan may not be great, but it’s a workable compromise, and that’s a lot more than anyone else has to offer.
It’s a Divine Comedy of sorts, but a pitiful state of affairs.