Global warming caused summer’s heatwave

Climate change made this year’s summer heatwave around 30 times more likely than it would be under natural conditions, the Met Office has said.

This summer was the equal warmest in a series dating back to 1910, along with 2006, 2003 and 1976, with temperatures reaching a peak on July 27 when 35.6C (96F) was recorded at Felsham, Suffolk.

New analysis from the Met Office has found the record-breaking summer temperatures were about 30 times more likely as a result of climate change caused by human activities.

The UK now has around a 12% chance of summer average temperatures being as high as they were in 2018, whereas they would have less than 0.5% chance of happening in a “natural” climate, the Met Office said.

The study comes after climate projections published last week in which the Met Office said that, by mid-century, there will be a 50% chance of summers as hot as 2018’s heatwave, making the sweltering conditions the norm.

Soaring summer temperatures and dry weather this year hit crops and livestock, affected water supplies, people’s health and led to numerous wildfires.

Professor Peter Stott, from the Met Office and Exeter University, said: “Our provisional study compared computer models based on today’s climate with those of the natural climate we would have had without human-induced emissions.

“We find that the intensity of this summer’s heatwave is around 30 times more likely than would have been the case without climate change.”

And he added: “This rapidly increasing chance results from the increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

Greenpeace UK executive director John Sauven said: “The link between climate change and extreme weather like the heatwave that scorched the UK last summer is getting stronger.

“It used to be a fingerprint, it now looks more like a smoking gun.”

This summer’s heatwave could become the norm.