The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
Poultry demand likely to rise
Long-term forecasts are traditionally unreliable, but the European Commission still uses these as a basis for agricultural policy. It has just published its latest agricultural markets forecasts, covering from now to 2030, and predicts poultry is the only meat that will enjoy a strong increase in demand.
It also says growth in demand will remain strong for cheese.
The report argues consumer choices will shape the market, and suggests people will become more focused on the quality and source of food.
The drivers, according to the report, will be environmental credentials, and it warns that to meet these expectations farmers will face higher production costs.
The report forecasts a big increase in cereal production, set to reach 325 million tonnes by 2030 against around 280 million now, and forecasts population and rising prosperity will drive global demand for dairy products, with the EU on course to supply over a third of global demand.
The outlook for beef is less encouraging, with production predicted to drop steadily from eight million tonnes now because of poor profitability and declining demand.
Sheep production will be maintained largely by environmental subsidies, while pork consumption in the EU is forecast to fall, compensated for by higher exports.
EU farm commissioner Phil Hogan has told young farmers their interests will be central to the post-2020 CAP now under debate in Brussels.
At the 60th anniversary of the European young farmers association CEJA, Mr Hogan said that for the first time their interests would be a priority of the CAP, reflecting the need to tackle an ageing farm population.
Member states will have to set aside at least 2% of their direct payments budget for generational renewal, and they will be able to top this up.
The grain trade forecasting group Coceral has cut back its final forecasts for EU production.
This follows confirmation that Swedish yields are down more dramatically than expected because of the impact of the summer drought.
Its latest forecast is for total production of 281.7 million tonnes, against its forecast of 283.5 million tonnes in September. This compares with a final figure for 2017 of more than 300 million tonnes.
On wheat the reduction is to 128.6 million tonnes from 130 million tonnes in September, against almost 142 million tonnes in 2017. Meanwhile, Belgium has broken ranks with the EU restriction on the use of neonicotinoids to protect bees, by allowing use on sugar beet crops for 2019.
Six member states in eastern Europe have also agreed that the product can be used next year. Germany is understood to be considering a similar relaxation.