The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
A major first looming for Scots
Can it be true? There seems to be a better than even chance that both Edinburgh Rugby and Glasgow Warriors could BOTH make the last eight of the this season’s Heineken Champions’ Cup. Halfway through the campaign, the pro teams are reasonably well placed, each with two bonus point wins and one defeat.
Regular readers know I’m not the sort to don the rose-coloured glasses and project outcomes so optimistic they almost qualify as insane (ref. Six Nations Championships, every year since 2000) but one can see quite clearly a path by which both clubs get to the knockout stages in this year’s competition.
This would of course be a major first. Between them, in more than 20 years of competition, the Scottish pro teams have managed to the reach the last eight just three times. Edinburgh have done it twice, and got the highaltitude of a semi-final in 2012, while Glasgow – belatedly given the quality of squad they’ve had most of this decade – got to the quarter-finals for the first and as yet only time just two years ago.
One set of predictions for the remaining three rounds I saw – and largely agree with – have Edinburgh actually winning their pool and qualifying fifth, while Glasgow would finish as a second runner-up and qualify seventh. This would mean Edinburgh would have an probable away quarterfinal at Munster while Glasgow would travel to Leinster or Toulouse. Gulp.
But let’s not rain on this parade. Here’s a look at where Edinburgh and Glasgow are, what they’re capable of and what they need to do.
EDINBURGH
Unsurprisingly, Edinburgh have not been as good this year as they were in Richard Cockerill’s first season. Teams are giving them respect now – which was what Cockerill wanted as a bottom line – and the demands on his squad from the international management team are significantly greater.
In some ways Edinburgh have become like Glasgow were in the early part of this decade, not quite strong enough to fight a battle on two fronts but well capable of a strong knockout campaign.
That the team’s three best displays of this season have been their European games says exactly where Cockerill is putting his resources. It’s also noticeable that their forward-based style is much more attuned to Europe than the more free-spirited Guinness PRO14.
Their group status does look odd, almost upside down from where many expected it to be. Early points losses by both French clubs – and neither are in a position of strength in their own Top14 have conspired to help both Edinburgh and Newcastle.
And now Newcastle find themselves in the very difficult position of being bottom of the Premiership and needing to sustain their European run. There’s no question, given a choice, where they’ll keep their powder dry.
Edinburgh therefore have a real chance. Depending on what happens in the return between Montpellier and Toulon, Cockerill’s team could face two clubs in the final two rounds who have no stake in the competition.
Which could mean even a losing bonus this weekend at Kingston Park gives the capital side a target of at least 18 points – possibly even enough to win the group.
Cockerill said this week his ideal scenario was having Montpellier at Murrayfield in the final group game knowing what needed to be done to qualify.
Edinburgh would have a probable away quarter-final at Munster while Glasgow would travel to Leinster or Toulouse
As usual with the Edinburgh head coach, it’s a sensible and very attainable goal.
GLASGOW
Glasgow’s progress this season wasn’t really reflected in their opening round defeat at home to Saracens, which seemed to underline all the issues that cost them in recent seasons.
The transformation of the Warriors in the tight – setpiece and maul specifically – has been quite starling.
Better discipline – Lyon on Saturday was a rare exception – means they are no longer gifting possession to opponents in their own 22, and even if they are stacked up they have the muscle and technique to prevent it being an automatic try if the opposition tried to maul.
This toughness while retaining the flair play that has become the team’s trademark, led to the two bonus point victories away at Cardiff and Lyon.
It’s certainly possible – even likely – that they can repeat the feat in the next two rounds at home at Scotstoun, and have 20 group points heading into their final date with Sarries at Allianz Park.
Twenty points has been enough to ensure quarter-final qualification as at least a runner-up in every year since the Heineken Cup reverted to five groups.
Glasgow themselves needed only 19 to qualify for the last eight two years ago.
This would also clear the decks for Glasgow to have a genuine attempt at taking down a genuine European powerhouse in their own backyard.
It’s a long shot of course and probably wanders into the insane optimism mentioned above, but if the Warriors seriously aspire to being true European players the same way that Leinster and Munster are, it’s the kind of challenge they have to face and succeed in.