Industry preparing for the worst

The no-deal brinkmanship game at Westminster is intensifying, leaving the farming and food industry with no option other than to prepare for crashing out of the EU on October 31.

Food companies dependent on imports from the eurozone are already stockpiling but there is little farmers can do to prepare for this potential shock to the industry.

There have already been warnings that sheep will have to be culled if the UK is closed out of the EU market by regulations or tariffs, and there has been a claim that 45,000 dairy cows might have to be culled in Northern Ireland if it cannot continue exporting close to a third of its milk to the Republic of Ireland for processing.

As no deal preparations become the central plank of government policy, food retailers have asked for competition rules to be eased to allow them to cooperate to head off Brexitdriven food shortages, and claims have emerged European meat buyers for major retailers are avoiding UK meat because of concerns about supply lines after Brexit.

Meanwhile, in Brussels, the main game is who will get what positions in the new European Commission which comes into existence on November 1. Ireland has confirmed it will again nominate current farm commissioner Phil Hogan as the Irish representative.

He has made it clear he does not want to emulate Franz Fischler by being a two-term farm commissioner, which would leave him responsible for implementing CAP reform, and has argued that on the basis of experience he is due a promotion. He is eyeing the trade portfolio which could be vital for Ireland in post-Brexit negotiations with the UK.

The agriculture brief and CAP reform implementation could go to Bulgaria and all nominated commissioners will face hearings before the European parliament in October.

Despite recent heatwave conditions, Europe is heading for a bumper wheat harvest. Contrary to what is happening in Scotland, most of the main producing countries are gaining from dry, settled weather and a speedy harvest.

There had been concerns record European temperatures in July might have damaged crops but the commission is forecasting a 142.4 million tonnes wheat harvest, up by 10% on last year’s drought-hit yields.

France, the EU’s biggest wheat producer, is forecasting the second largest harvest on record, Germany a 15% rise on last year, and yield rises are also expected in the UK and Poland.

Phil Hogan is to be nominated as Ireland’s representative on the new European Commission.