Seasonal trend defied as British pig prices remain fairly stable

GB pig prices have remained relatively stable in the early weeks of 2020, bucking their traditional seasonal downward trend, according to the latest market analysis by Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).

According to Iain Macdonald, senior economics analyst with QMS, producer prices were up 18.4% year-on-year in mid-February, despite Defra slaughter figures suggesting higher year-onyear production levels in January and domestic consumption being weak.

Since the UK is only 59% self-sufficient in pigmeat production, however, international trade has had a significant impact on the current equation, with UK trade statistics revealing substantial falls in imports and a rise in exports during 2019. As a result, the net balance of imports has fallen, which has tightened supplies on the UK market.

“Growth in exports came almost entirely from increased deliveries to China and Hong Kong which more than doubled from a year earlier during the final quarter of 2019,” said Mr Macdonald.

“Driving this growth has been the African Swine Fever outbreak in China which first appeared in August 2018.”

Official Chinese Government statistics indicate that by October 2019, the country’s pig population had contracted by around 40%, although industry sources suggest even larger declines have taken place.

With pork a staple of the Chinese diet, added Mr Macdonald, and market research suggesting that as many as a quarter of Chinese consumers would be willing to buy pork at any price, a strong rise in import demand has pushed up farmgate prices across the world over the past year. That, of course, was before the conformation of a coronavirus outbreak in China.

The net balance of imports has fallen, tightening supplies on the UK market.