ANALYSIS

The last two weeks have been a whirlwind for businesses as they have got to grips with how coronavirus will impact them.

There is not a company or person in this country that hasn’t been impacted in some way and the picture has changed rapidly on a daily basis.

The escalation of government intervention is unlike anything we’ve ever seen – but it’s been needed.

Even the unprecedented packages of business support by the government won’t be enough for every single company but there’s no doubt that millions of jobs have been saved.

With so many businesses out of operation, a recession is not likely, or probable but a certainty.

But the scale of the contraction predicted by the expert independent economists at the Fraser of Allender institute is startling.

The loss to GDP could be twice that of the financial crash, from which the economy had only recently recovered.

That’s scary. It’s not hard to recall the queues outside Northern Rock, people being caught with thousands of pounds of negative equity in their homes and the UK’s Government austerity programme.

Even this gloomy prediction is based on a V-shaped recession, with the country getting back to business as usual by Christmas. I have doubts.

What about the tourism and hospitality sector in Scotland? Will that ever by the same again? It certainly won’t be back to where it was by the end of the year.

The Fraser of Allender report states that around 13% of the Scottish economy and 19% of employment is made up of such sectors, including retail, hotels and restaurants. Even when businesses are able to trade, I fear that there’s a long road ahead to recovery for that sector alone.

No one knows what the next few months hold – but a V-shaped recession at this stage looks like a best-case scenario.

In the meantime, for the sake of our loved ones, our elderly, our jobs and businesses, we all need to do our bit by following the government’s rules to keep apart to stop the spread.

With so many businesses out of operation, a recession is not likely, but a certainty

Pictures: Mhairi Edwards. Top: Dundee city centre, including the Wellgate, during the lockdown. Above: Security staff still working at one store.