Expert says ‘no evidence’ easing measures will lead to new spike

A premature ending of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions might not result in a second spike of the virus, leading expert Professor Hugh Pennington has told the Scottish Parliament.

In a letter to MSPs on Holyrood’s Health Committee the Aberdeen University emeritus professor said he has seen “no evidence” to suggest there could be a rise in cases “more virulent than the one we have endured”.

He said while previous flu pandemics have seen more deadly second waves of infection, this may not be the case for coronavirus.

He added: “It is far more likely that our situation would resemble that in Singapore, where infections would continue to occur with cases numbers declining but at a slower pace than if controls had been maintained.”

“I don’t know what Hugh Pennington is basing that on. NICOLA STURGEON

He also suggested that within Scotland, residents in Orkney and the Western Isles could be “freed earlier from social distancing and lockdown than mainland communities”.

Asked about his comments, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “I think every piece of evidence I hear, both directly within the Scottish Government and from international experts, is that there is a very real risk of a second wave of this infection later in the year and the scale and the timing of that could absolutely be influenced by the decisions we take on lockdown.

“I think every country is pretty much alive to that risk as they take decisions. If that wasn’t the case, then we wouldn’t have countries as gradually and as carefully as they are – starting to ease their way out of these restrictions.

“So I don’t know what Hugh Pennington is basing that on.”