UK was ‘ill-prepared to deal with pandemic’

A secret Whitehall document produced years before the coronavirus outbreak forecast the UK was ill-prepared to deal with a health pandemic, it has emerged.

The analysis, codenamed Exercise Cygnus, was based on a 2016 simulation of a flu pandemic involving all levels of national, regional and local government, police and other organisations.

It identified a “lack of joint tactical-level plans” for a public health emergency, with demand for services outstripping local capacity.

The 57-page Public Health England report, leaked to The Guardian, also identified concerns about the expectation the social care system would be able to provide the level of support needed in the event of a serious outbreak.

The Cygnus document said: “The UK’s preparedness and response, in terms of its plans, policies and capability, is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic that will have a nationwide impact across all sectors.”

It comes as First Secretary of State Dominic Raab confirmed during the daily press briefing yesterday that a “very significant issue” remains in care homes.

Professor Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, the largest representative body for independent providers of adult social care, said: “From what we understand, this document set out a range of questions and actions that if they had been followed may have left us in a much better position to navigate the current health emergency.

“It would be really helpful if this document was put into the public domain as many of the key messages may still be helpful in today’s pandemic.”

The document analysing the efficacy of the simulation identified four key lessons, including to be more prepared for a pandemic by better understanding how the public would react to a worst-case scenario health crisis.

It also stated the government was “lacking” the capability and capacity to surge resources into key areas if a pandemic was to be declared.

Ministers have acknowledged the presence of the Cygnus report throughout the coronavirus pandemic, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock telling reporters last month that “everything that was appropriate to do was done”.

Liz Kendall, the shadow social care minister, said Exercise Cygnus “provided clear warnings” about a lack of preparedness for a pandemic, particularly in social care.

She said: “These warnings have now proved all too sadly true as the unfolding tragedy in our care homes shows.

“Ministers must be clear about why they failed to act on the report’s recommendations and what they will now do to fully protect and resource these vital services in future.”

Latest figures from the Department of Health show 30,615 people have died in hospitals, care homes and the wider community after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 5pm on Wednesday.