The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
In part three of our series we examine the independence question.
A second Scottish independence referendum was once planned for 2020. How has the pandemic shifted government thinking?
Nicola Sturgeon had hoped 2020 would be the year she would deliver Scottish independence.
Long-standing demands for the powers to hold a referendum were “paused” in March, but long before the virus reached Scotland it was already clear the first minister’s calls for another independence vote were falling on deaf ears in London and eyes shifted to next year’s Scottish election as the next staging post.
In the days before the outbreak, Nicola Sturgeon’s star seemed to be on the wane.
The SNP was riding high in the polls but her government had been rocked by the departure of finance secretary Derek Mackay, a succession battle appeared to have broken out between the Edinburgh South West MP Joanna Cherry QC and former Westminster leader Angus Robertson, and the Alex Salmond trial was in full swing.
Ms Sturgeon herself, it was said, was growing weary after more than five years in the job and her government was under sustained attack for its record on health and education.
However, her performance through the crisis, inevitably compared to Boris Johnson’s, has given her an undoubted boost.
She has steadfastly refused to play constitutional politics with the pandemic, but others have seized upon it.
Former justice secretary Kenny MacAskill is one who publicly claimed the “incompetence” of the UK Government would boost the independence campaign.
James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, who has made in-depth studies of the SNP, takes a more measured view and predicted Ms Sturgeon would emerge strongly in the final reckoning.
“She will come out of this and be compared with Johnson and that can only work to her advantage. I don’t think there will be a big public appetite for blaming and shaming,” he said.
“What I suspect – but obviously do not know for sure – is that this pandemic will have a bigger impact on party support than support for independence. The likelihood is that it will damage the Conservatives in Scotland as Boris Johnson will be compared with Nicola Sturgeon and that is not a happy comparison for the prime minister.
“Johnson does appear to be misjudging the mood of Scotland and playing into the SNP’s hands but whether the SNP is able to take advantage is another matter – it may manage to increase support for the party… but for independence?”
The lingering response to the Alex Salmond trial must also be factored in.
The former first minister, acquitted of all charges, promised to keep his powder dry throughout the pandemic but is writing a book about the episode which could prove explosive.
He has his supporters, including Miss Cherry – who wants an independent inquiry – and Mr MacAskill, who has demanded resignations.
Ms Sturgeon was spared giving evidence in the court case but may yet be dragged into the saga. In particular, questions will arise over how she and the Scottish Government handled the complaints against her former mentor.
One senior SNP figure suggested Ms Sturgeon should be able to tough out any controversy, especially if her reputation has been enhanced by her coronavirus leadership.
“Some political opponents have been investing quite a lot in this, that it will end up with some sort of catastrophe for the SNP,” the SNP source said.
“I’m sure it will be bumpy, but politics is very often bumpy. If she was already seen as being damaged, it might be a different story.”