Support for independence soars as poll signals SNP sweep in 2021

Support for Scottish independence has surged and the SNP is heading for a landslide victory at next year’s Holyrood election, according to a new poll.

The survey, by polling agency Panelbase on behalf of The Sunday Times, found 54% of Scots now back the country going independent, almost turning on its head the 55-45 result of the 2014 referendum on the issue.

It also found strong backing for Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, with the first minister’s approval rating on the issue reaching 60 points.

The result represents a five-point leap in support for independence since the paper’s last poll in March.

The survey of 1,026 Scottish voters, conducted between June 30 and July 3, recorded a four-point jump for the SNP in the Holyrood constituency vote, taking the party to 55%.

The Conservatives dropped six points to 20% of the vote, while Labour went up one point to 15%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens remained unchanged at 6% and 3% respectively.

Panelbase believes this would see the SNP secure 70 of the 73 first-past-thepost seats under Holyrood’s additional member system.

“For many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country. SIR JOHN CURTICE

The Conservatives would take one such seat and the Lib Dems would take the final two.

However, the SNP also enjoyed a twopoint rise in the regional vote to 50%.

The Conservatives dropped eight points to 18%, and Labour and the Greens gained two points each to reach 15% and 8% respectively.

Panelbase estimates this would see the SNP secure a further 11 seats at Holyrood compared to the last election in 2016, taking the total seats won to 74.

The poll predicts the Tories will finish with 24 seats overall, Labour will take 17, while the Lib Dems will secure five.

A total of nine seats for the Greens would result in a pro-independence majority of 37 at the Parliament.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the average of Panelbase polls over the last six months, including the latest, puts Yes on 51% and No on 49%, the first time in polling history that Yes has been ahead for such a long period.

Sir John told The Sunday Times: “Unsurprisingly, for many nationalists, the past three months have exemplified how Scotland could govern itself better as an independent, small country.

“More importantly, it may have persuaded some former unionists of the merits of that claim, too.”

PA. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is served a coffee by Jamie Buchta during a visit to Cold Town House in Edinburgh’s Grassmarket ahead of the reopening of outdoor cafés and beer gardens today.