Statistics watchdog reprimands Sturgeon over virus comparison

Nicola Sturgeon has been rebuked for repeatedly claiming Scotland’s coronavirus prevalence is five times less than England’s.

The UK statistics watchdog criticised the claim as new figures revealed Scotland had the third highest excess mortality rate in Europe in the first part of the year, behind England and Spain.

The first minister was reprimanded by the Office for Statistic Regulation, which said it did not think the Scottish Government’s sources allowed for the “quantified and uncaveated comparison of the kind that was made”.

The regulator has written to the Scottish Government’s chief statistician, saying the studies relied on for the claim were unpublished.

Nicola Sturgeon first mentioned the figure in a speech in early July and repeated it several times later.

Meanwhile, the new Office for

“We would expect to see sources made publicly available... OFFICE FOR STATISTICS REGULATION

National Statistics figures, comparing data from 23 European countries, found that Scotland was only behind England and Spain when it came to levels of excess mortality.

By the week ending May 29, England had a relative cumulative age-standardised mortality rate of 7.55% – meaning it was 7.55% higher than the average mortality rate between 2015 and 2019.

Spain ranked second, at 6.65%, followed by Scotland (5.11%), Belgium (3.89%) and Wales (2.78%).

Ms Sturgeon’s Covid-19 prevalence claim triggered angry exchanges in the Scottish Parliament when Scottish Conservative leader Jackson Carlaw demanded an apology from her.

In its letter, the Office for Statistics Regulation said:“In future, if such comparisons are made, we would expect to see sources made publicly available and a clear explanation of the limitations and associated uncertainty.”