Tayside ‘may require vigilance’

Perth and Kinross has the highest risk of local coronavirus transmission anywhere in Scotland and may require “greater vigilance” from health officials, according to a study.

The region has surged past other areas dealing with local outbreaks, including Aberdeen, which became the site of Scotland’s first local lockdown.

A new Scottish Government report considered whether the current number of Covid-19 infections exceeds what health officials would expect at this stage of the epidemic, based on a new modelling system from Warwick University.

It found six local authority areas – including Perth and Kinross and Dundee – had exceeded expected levels but figures are beginning to trend towards normal.

The new method is designed to be more useful than the R number – the average number of people infected by each person – because this figure can be volatile when the overall number of deaths is low.

The report states: “We need to find new ways to monitor trends in the epidemic.

“One of the ways we can do this is to calculate whether the number of confirmed infections (based on testing) in each area exceeds the number that was expected, given the number recorded across the country – this is called ‘exceedance’.”

Areas with an exceedance level above six are deemed to be at a higher risk of local transmission and may require “greater vigilance”, according to the report.

In the week leading up to August 17, the only areas above this limit were Perth and Kinross, at 12.7, and Dundee, where a number of workers at the 2 Sisters chicken factory live, at 7.7.

Angus came in at 4.3, Aberdeen at 3.6, and levels in Aberdeenshire are beginning to fall back towards background levels.

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We need to find new ways to monitor trends in the epidemic. SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT REPORT