The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
Scotland sees Covid-19 resurgence ‘blunted’
There are signs the rise of new coronavirus cases has been “blunted” but it is too early to know if the country has passed the second peak of infections, public health officials say.
Scotland recorded 1,456 new Covid-19 cases into yesterday but this figure is understood to include cases delayed over the weekend due to a laboratory issue, with the number registered on Sunday falling to an unexpected low of 316.
Official records show 993 cases were recorded on Monday, significantly lower than the high of 1,429 on Wednesday last week, or the 1,351 registered on Thursday and the 1,196 listed for Friday.
The possible slowing of infections comes at a crucial moment, with
Nicola Sturgeon set to outline the first details of a new tiered frame work today.
The first minister ’s announcement is expected to see the tough est present restrictions in the country, which shut down hospitality and social mixing for the central belt’s 3.4 million residents, rolled over for an extra week.
Scotland ’s national clinical director, Professor Jason Leitch, said delays to testing data made it difficult to tell the overall trends and said it was tough to pick out what, if any, public health restrictions had slowed the spread of the virus.
At the Scottish Government’ s daily coronavirus briefing yesterday, Prof Leitch said: “It would appear that 11 days into the restrictions in the central belt, the doubling time is not as it was.
“You’ll remember a few weeks ago we stood here and said the doubling time modelling suggested nine to 11 days.
“But we haven’t gone from 1,400 positive cases to 2,800 positive cases – that would have been double.
“So it would appear that we have blunted the acceleration.”
Prof Leitch said he does not know if this phase of the virus has “peaked” because the situation has been made more complex by the weekend delays.
He said the data around intensive care admissions is less encouraging, with 69 people in ICU, though he said the numbers are still within NHS capacity.
A further 15 deaths were recorded into yesterday.
Also during the briefing, Ms Sturgeon confirmed the new multi-level system of restrictions, which could see different measures implemented regionally and nationally, is not expected to come into force until November 2.
Her Cabinet will discuss today whether to roll over the central belt rules for another week until the new system takes effect but the first minister said it would “make sense” from a public health perspective to extend them.
The new framework will be voted on by MSPs next week when they return from recess and will be timed to align with the UK Government’s new furlough scheme.
However, a leading expert in social psychology – and adviser to the Scottish Government – warned a similar tiered system already in place in England had represented “the worst of all worlds”.
Stephen Reicher of St Andrews University told the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus that the three-tiered approach south of the border was a “good idea in principle” if it provided clarity and equity.
But Professor Reicher, who is a member of Sage and the Scottish Government’s Covid-19 advisory group, warned there had been a lack of clarity over what criteria had been used to place areas in different tiers.
He said: “A tier system isn’t bad in and of itself.
“The way it ’s been applied, I think, has been disastrous and is leading to political paralysis when we need action really quickly because infections are spiking.”