Climate change ‘played role’ in flooding

Climate change has made the kind of heavy rainstorms that drove deadly flooding in Europe last month more likely, scientists have warned.

Researchers found that extreme rainfall events similar to those which led to severe flooding in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are between 1.2 and nine times more likely to happen because of global warming.

A rapid study by scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution initiative also found the kind of downpours that caused the floods are between 3-19% heavier because of rising temperatures caused by humans.

They warned that as global temperatures continue to warm, the chances of extreme rainfall and floods will rise further.

Last month’s heavy rainfall, which helped cause the flooding, happened in a world that is 1.2C warmer than it was in the late 1800s due to human activity, mostly burning fossil fuels, causing emissions of greenhouse gases.

The floods, which were worst around the rivers Ahr, Erft and Meuse, caused at least 184 deaths in Germany and 38 in Belgium and caused devastation to homes, roads, railway lines and businesses, cutting off some villages for days.

The rapid analysis said the flooding was caused by very heavy rainfall over a period of one to two days, already wet conditions and local water and river levels.

The team of 39 scientists from the UK, Europe and the US used weather records and computer models to compare the likelihood and intensity of such rainstorms in the current climate and a world without 1.2C of warming.