The Courier & Advertiser (Fife Edition)
Stay on guard for Covid, says expert
The Covid pandemic has been part of everyone’s life now for more than two years – but is it coming to an end?
As testing and selfisolation rules change and restrictions ease, you may be wondering if the end is now in sight.
We asked Professor Neil Mabbott, chair of immunopathology at Edinburgh University, for his view.
When the virus moves to endemic from pandemic stage this means coronavirus infections occur at reasonably predictable and stable levels.
But we are not in the endemic stage yet. Prof Mabbott points to “very high” virus levels in the UK compared to those during earlier phases of the pandemic.
There were 1,311 new cases in Scotland on May 4 2022 which compares to 139 new cases on the same day in 2021.
He says: “Unfortunately, the coronavirus that causes Covid is here to stay.
“Last week there were still more than 1,000 deaths in the UK within 28 days of a positive test. Covid continues to cause significant challenges to the NHS, as well as issues to businesses due to staff absences.”
There is some better news though, he adds, with data across the UK suggesting we may have passed the recent peak of infections.
“The prevalence of the virus in the community in recent weeks has started to fall,” he says. “Importantly, so have the number of cases of serious illness, hospitalisation and death.
“If these downwards trends continue this could suggest we may be beginning to move towards the endemic phase.”
Prof Mabbott admits it is impossible to predict exactly how Covid-19 might alter over coming months and years.
He says: “We shouldn’t just assume the next virus variants that arise will have reduced severity. We should maintain preparedness so that should a new variant of concern arise, we can act swiftly to contain it.
“So it remains important that as much of the population as possible come forward for their vaccinations and boosters when eligible.”
It is likely we will continue to see a downward trend in infections during the next few months as we socialise more outdoors and approach school summer holidays.
But as immunity wanes and indoor mixing increases in autumn and winter, it is likely infection rates will climb again.
Prof Mabbott says: “Careful monitoring of infection and hospitalisation rates in vulnerable groups will help determine whether subsequent booster vaccinations will be required in the autumn alongside annual flu shots.
“In our highly connected world, the emergence of a new virus in one region can rapidly cause a pandemic that has a serious impact on health, wellbeing and businesses across the globe.
“It is essential we maintain a sufficient level of expertise and preparedness over the coming years so when the next novel virus emerges, we can swiftly act to control it spread and limit its impact on society.”