The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
Steve Scott assesses the differing Pro12 fortunes of Glasgow and Edinburgh
LEAGUE CLIMAX: Townsend tinkering pays off as Warriors make surge for Europe – but rivals floundering again
Two weeks to go and it’s seemingly all to play for in the Guinness PRO12.
For those of us who wondered about a disruptive season with the World Cup an added mix to the usual problem in the league – specifically, top sides not playing their best players enough – we instead have a furious, exciting finish.
For this, surely give thanks to those nasty French and English clubs who insisted on meritorious achievement within the PRO12 to count for European qualification. It’s made for a much more exciting league.
We’re not quite right yet – the “one free entry” to each of the countries is a bit of a lingering abomination. Not only does it ensure there’s no real incentive for the Italian teams to improve, it makes for one grossly lop-sided pool in the European Rugby Champions Cup.
This actually favours Aviva Premiership and Top14 sides, as they’re far more likely to draw Treviso or Zebre in a pool where two teams qualify almost as of right. There’s no question an Edinburgh, Munster, Cardiff or Ospreys – three of these teams will probably miss out on qualification for next year – would be a better ERCC representative.
For the Scottish teams, defending champions Glasgow are set for play-offs, possibly even a home game, after another astonishing run of wins through February and March. Edinburgh, on the other hand, beat the Warriors twice over New Year but could end up seventh yet again. Here’s a look in more detail.
WARRIORS CHARGE
You need a reason for Gregor Townsend’s continual tinkering with his starting line-up? The 57 players used by Glasgow during this season? You only had to look at their 46-10 demolition of erstwhile play-off rivals Scarlets at the weekend.
A seven-try romp away to the side who were just a place below them in the standings was properly impressive, and you would think that starting team must now qualify as the strongest available to Townsend.
Yet, a “strongest side” with no Leone Nakarawa? No Peter Horne, no Sean Lamont, no specialist open side?
It reminds me of the Warriors run to the play-offs two years ago, when they strung together a similar number of successive wins to eventually finish second in the standings. Then Townsend rotated his team like mad, never starting the same stand-off twice, with the then-emergent Finn Russell, Duncan Weir and Ruaridh Jackson sharing duties.
Russell is now the accepted first choice, and his virtuoso performance against Scarlets underlined that. What we need now from him is some consistency, but the suggestion from some that Finn had “second season syndrome” or had been “found out” at the top level are clearly nonsense.
The “Toonie Tombola” may be maddening to those of us trying to keep track but it does make Glasgow a team of endlessly interchangeable parts – I’d say that only captain Jonny Gray and his incredible, irreplaceable workrate is an absolute fixture, week-to-week, although you’d prefer to have Stuart Hogg and Russell as much as possible.
Even if they had not run riot in the first hour on Saturday, the strength of the bench ensured they would have the edge for the last 20 minutes.
That bench might be crucial in the final reckoning of the regular season against Connacht. The wee province are flying right now and gave Munster a good doing at the Sportsground on Saturday night.
Glasgow have always had to win that final game in Galway if they want to be home for the semi-finals.
The Warriors have a pretty good record of late in the west of Ireland but this is definitely not your dad’s Connacht.
Lose, and they would probably have to return to Galway for the semi, or head to Leinster’s RDS, where their record is pretty poor. But if they win that last regular season game, they are back to Scotstoun for the semi, and the final, don’t forget, is at BT Murrayfield.
EDINBURGH FADE
Edinburgh have of course beaten Glasgow twice at the national stadium this season, and there has to be the occasional element of puzzlement among the players and their fans why the Warriors are set fair for the play-offs while the capital club struggle for European qualification again.
It’s actually pretty obvious. Edinburgh get involved in far too many tight games because they don’t have a back division that can cut open PRO12 defences. Their record of try bonus points in three years under Alan Solomons – once an innovative backs coach who seems to have got ever more conservative in his old age – is downright abysmal.
Edinburgh’s bonus point try against Zebre a couple of weeks ago – scored deep into added time with the last play of the game – was only their second of this campaign.
They’ve just seven try-bonus points in three seasons under “Solly”; Glasgow have 20 over the same spell.
Forwards coach Stevie Scott (no relation) has built a formidable pack at Edinburgh, indeed his front row are now a fixture for Scotland. Defence coach Peter Wilkins has constructed a scheme which is third best in terms of points and tries conceded in the league.
The development of Blair Kinghorn and the rise of Damien Hoyland – the wing has a fifth of Edinburgh’s tries this season – offer some encouragement, but Matt Scott is off to Gloucester this summer, hopefully, in terms of Scotland issues, to rediscover his cutting edge as Tim Visser did with Harlequins.
There was surprise among some that Solomons signed for an extra year, more so since Edinburgh may yet finish eighth in the PRO12 for the third year in a row.
The path of succession seemed to be established with Duncan Hodge coming into the coaching team this year alongside Scott and Wilkins.
There’s been progress but it now needs tangible results. If Edinburgh can beat a wounded Munster next week in Cork, then follow with a win over a resurgent Cardiff Blues at BT Murrayfield in their final game, they may yet get top six.
But these games are both effectively sudden-death European qualifiers and the odds look squarely against them.