Risk-management model touted for post-Brexit support

Defra ministers in London have been giving some hints about the likely shape of support after Brexit.

Speaking at a dinner in Belfast, George Eustice appeared to rule out a direct support model. Instead, he suggested a risk-management approach, with farmers and the Government sharing the risk of volatility as a result of exposure to global prices and other events.

He also called for more producer organisations to boost farmers’ negotiating strength and for greater fairness along the food supply chain.

These are all policies that could be implemented now in the UK under EU rules, but have been rejected in the past.

However, they now seem central to its post-Brexit support model.

Meanwhile the Defra minister, Andrea Leadsom, has described her priorities for food exports as “tea, biscuits and jam” – which does not seem to add up to a big commitment to driving markets for primary agricultural products.

The CETA (Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement) between Canada and the EU is in danger of collapse.

This has proved controversial for a number of reasons, not least the fact that it would open the EU to Canadian beef and pork in return for better access for European cheese.

The opposition, which could block the deal, is coming from Belgium. All member states have to ratify trade deals for them to go through.

As the UK prepares to go its own way on trade deals, the EU is increasingly in disarray.

The TTIP deal with the United States is stalled, the Mercosur deal with South America is in the very slow lane and now CETA could collapse.

The commissioner for trade, Cecilia Malstrom, has said the EU is so divided when it comes to making international agreements that reaching a Brexit deal with the UK could prove impossible.

A report by a European think-tank has claimed that other EU member states with big agricultural industries will have to become more cost-efficient in the wake of Brexit.

It says this applies in particular to countries that are big suppliers to the UK market, particularly for beef and dairy products.

Those that are vulnerable include Ireland, France and the Netherlands.

This is based on an assumption that the UK will conclude low or no-tariff deals with major food producing countries with which the EU is struggling to secure trade deals.

These include Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina and North America.

This adds weight to suggestions that food prices will fall after Brexit, to the disadvantage of UK farmers, because of a policy by the Government to give duty-free access to the UK food market.

This is impossible within the EU because sensitive products, such as beef, are protected by pro-CAP member states, led by France.