The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
The end of Labour?
As it lurches from one crisis to the next, what, if anything, does the future hold for the Labour Party? Michael Alexander sought the opinions of political experts
The ink on Scotland’s ballot papers was barely dry when during the early hours of May 6, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale admitted she was “heartbroken” that the Conservatives had beaten her party into second place during the Holyrood elections.
While the SNP secured a historic third victory in the Scottish Parliament – albeit two seats short of an outright majority – Labour had a dismal night, losing a third of the 37 seats they held previously.
Fast forward six months and any hopes that the party might have dusted itself down and bounced back from the drubbing have long since faded.
As The Courier exclusively revealed yesterday, Dundee Labour is the latest wing to find itself in meltdown after a former Lord Provost urged a “clean out” of underperforming members.
Mervyn Rolfe’s calls for a shake-up, following the de-selection then reinstatement of two veteran councillors ahead of next May’s local elections, are likely to add fuel to a highly charged meeting in the city planned for Thursday.
And coming in the wake of months of damaging headlines surrounding Jeremy Corbyn’s battle to cling on to the leadership of the UK party, they have done little to dispel suggestions that this is a party riven by internal strife. Analysts have blamed everything from the Tony Blair-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 to the financial crash of 2008 and the legacy of the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 for Labour’s current woes.
Constitution question
Now, with the constitutional debate back in the spotlight following the Brexit vote on June 23 and the kickstarting of IndyRef2 legislation last week, the question being posed is where, if anywhere, does the Labour Party’s future lie north of the border?
The answer is in independence, says political scientist and polling expert Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University.
He says Scottish Labour’s backing would not only make independence all but inevitable, it would open the door to it “potentially becoming the most powerful party in Scotland”.
For him, the difficulty facing Scottish Labour is that even if they did decide to come down in favour of selfdetermination, the issue is now “owned” by the SNP, who have succeeded in presenting themselves as the party of the centre-left.
“What is emerging now is that Scottish Labour might be willing to back the SNP on Scotland’s relationship with a post-Brexit European Union,” Prof Curtice said last night. “But arguably the big strategic problem the Labour Party in Scotland faces is how do they persuade the traditional Labour working class electorate that they can manage the capitalist economy in their interests?
“There are less opportunities now for working class children to make it into middle class jobs, and income inequality is greater now than it’s ever been since the early 1980s.
“Add to that the fact that many Labour members are middle class now, and how does that go down with those who are struggling?”
Leadership
The tribulations facing Labour south of the border are also damaging the Scottish party, says Prof Curtice, principally the fact that at UK level, it “has no one capable of being an effective leader”.
“With the Westminster Tory government so divided and with a hell of a job on its hands, a half-decent leader for Labour should really mean the government is there for the taking,” he said.
“Up to now there’s been a perception that Labour have their second 11 at Holyrood while the SNP have their first 11. Post-devolution, people want a party that’s going to stand up to London and Labour haven’t been able to do that.
“Then there was the independence referendum disaster when Labour got into bed with the Tories. A third of Labour voted Yes and they have stuck with the SNP.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader Alex Rowley, a former Fife Council leader and member of the party for 35 years, has been answering the question “Does the Labour party have a future?” since he was a student in the 1980s at the height of Conservative rule.
His answer remains “yes”, but he believes that unless Scottish Labour tackles the constitution it cannot move on from its disastrous defeat to both the SNP and the Tories at the polls.
“The independence referendum left Labour in a very difficult place,” he said. “It had no vision of what it was for.
“But once we sort out our constitutional position, we can come back. What’s clear is that there is no centre ground party at the moment.”
More autonomy from London is crucial to deflect allegations that Scottish Labour is a “branch office” of the UK party, he insists.
However, he finds it “bizarre” that there should be a further push for independence when the details of the Brexit deal are still not known.
Greater home rule remains his objective, and he is clear that the key for his party is to clearly establish where it stands on the constitution.
“Too much of the debate is about unionism v nationalism when it should be about the issues, about policy,” he said.
“There will always be the need for a left of centre party in Scotland. And while the SNP have been successfully winning support right across the spectrum, they are certainly not of the centre-left.”
What is emerging now is that Scottish Labour might be willing to back the SNP on Scotland’s relationship with a post-Brexit European Union