Political headwinds

Only certainty for business is uncertainty

Doing business in Scotland has not been without its uncertainties over the past few years, to say the least.

A 2014 referendum on independence that was difficult to call right up until the last moment, a 2015 UK General Election that produced a majority that few expected, a 2016 Scottish Parliamentary Election that saw the SNP lose its majority and the Conservatives replace Labour as the main party of opposition, and the 2016 referendum that confounded all the polls and put the UK on the exit route from the EU.

Now it appears the prospect of a second referendum on Scottish independence may crystallise and Scotland’s businesses may again be faced with further uncertainty about fundamental issues such as our currency and central bank. Of course, that is not to say that Scotland is not without its uncertainties already.

We are embarking on long and detailed negotiations with the EU over the terms of our future access to the European single market and it will only be after the UK leaves the EU that it will be able to formalise new trade deals with other countries.

In addition, we are no clearer about the long-term future of EU nationals living and working in Scotland, UK nationals living and working in the EU, or about what our future inward migration strategy might look like.

So what would another Scottish independence referendum mean for businesses in Scotland against this background?

The Scottish Chambers of Commerce network took a neutral stance towards the outcome of the last independence referendum and we have begun a conversation with our member businesses about their attitudes toward a second ballot.

Scotland’s circumstances have changed since 2014 and the basis of the rival arguments next time around will be likely to be quite different in character to those articulated at that time.

Brexit is a reality, oil revenues are not what they were, and the political complexion of Scotland has changed significantly.

Chambers of Commerce will listen to our members and our approach will be guided by them.

Business needs a clear voice in the debate to come and, as Scotland’s largest business organisation, we intend to play a leading role in ensuring that the Scottish and UK Governments and politicians of all parties have a comprehensive understanding of the business perspective. What is certain is uncertainty. The cumulative effect of past, present, and potential future uncertainty has had a direct impact on business decisions being made in and about Scotland and has, at the very least, affected the timing of investment decisions.

And remember that Scotland is now an environment with higher business rates percentages than the rest of the UK and a higher income tax burden than the rest of the UK.

Scotland’s businesses face many challenges ahead.

First Minister Nicoa Sturgeon declares her intention to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence during a speech at Bute House.