Referendum risk for SNP

Sir, - So Nicola Sturgeon sees the local election results are an emphatic victory. Really?

On one level indeed they are. The SNP has more or less repeated its 2012 local election result in terms of seat numbers, with more councillors than any other party in Scotland, plus most Tory gains came from Labour, not the nationalists.

While local control is important to the SNP, Ms Sturgeon has her sights firmly on the bigger Westminster prize and it is here she faces losses.

The 2012 local election was way before the massive surge in SNP support in late 2014 and 2015. Merely matching her party’s 2012 performance starkly demonstrates how much ground the SNP has lost since the 2015 Westminster election.

The SNP secured significantly less than 40% of the local election first preference vote, that’s more than 10% less than achieved in 2015. The Tories secured a high ratio of first preference votes in their key target Westminster seats.

Ms Sturgeon is set to end up with more MPs than any other party in June. That will be hailed as an emphatic victory too. But the much more crucial question is how many additional seats will she lose compared to 2015?

And, importantly, what impact would say another below 40% SNP vote have on the validity of Ms Sturgeon’s ongoing referendum demands? Martin Redfern.

Merchiston Gardens, Edinburgh.

Atthattime his boasts that the SNP would hold the balance of power at Westminster had the effect of galvanising support for the Tories in England