SNP admit ‘real threat’ from rivals in NE Fife

Separate studies predict Gethins will lose to either the Tories or Lib Dems in Fife battleground

The SNP will lose in North East Fife, according to two new studies.

A YouGov analysis shows the Liberal Democrats taking the constituency, while the Electoral Calculus website puts the seat in Conservative hands.

Stephen Gethins, the SNP incumbent, is protecting a 4,344 majority in what promises to be one of the closest fought battles in the country.

The Tories are poised to win the seat with 36% of the vote, the Electoral Calculus website predicts, with the SNP on 34%, the Lib Dems 21% and Labour 14%.

YouGov has called victory for the Lib Dems at 34%, with the SNP on 31%, the Conservatives 20% and Labour 8%.

Tony Miklinski, the Conservative candidate in North East Fife, said the “reality is it is getting too close to call”.

Referring to the EC website putting the Tories in the lead for the first time, he said: “I don’t look at that in isolation.

“I look at that on the back of the council election from when we went from 3 to 15 councillors and winning seats which we didn’t think we could get in our wildest dreams. The momentum has shifted.

“There is a natural majority for unionism in North East Fife and there is growing clamour to stop the SNP because people are the sick of them.

“There are an awful lot of people who vote Lib Dem just to stop the SNP. They’d be happier voting Conservative and that’s where I hope they’re going to end up.”

The Lib Dems say the YouGov poll has more credibility because it asks local constituents what their voting intention is.

Elizabeth Riches, the Liberal Democrat candidate, said: “The hard evidence shows that in North East Fife it’s a straight choice between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

“The Tories came third in the recent council elections, third in last year’s Scottish Parliament elections and in the polls they are in third position as opposed to the Liberal Democrats who have really challenged the SNP.

“If people want to stop the SNP then the choice is clear.”

Mr Gethins said North East Fife is a straight contest between the SNP and the Tories.

“If you don’t want to wake up to a Tory government on Friday, go out and vote on Thursday,” he said.

“Ashcroft, Electoral Calculus and even YouGov seem to think there is a real threat (from Tories) and they are the only independent pollsters who have looked at this seat. The threat is there but we’ve been working hard.

“We’re really pleased that a lot of Lib Dems have been coming over (to SNP) because of my work on Europe, but we’re fighting hard and will be until 10pm on Thursday.”

The other North East Fife hopefuls are Rosalind Garton (Lab) and Mike Scott-Hayward (Ind).

Stephen Gethins, the SNP incumbent, is protecting a 4,344 majority.