The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
Polls suggest May set for humiliation in election
Narrowing of lead over Labour comes as Dugdale faces funding row
As the election campaign enters its final day, opinion polls predicted a Conservative victory but remained split on its margin.
A YouGov survey suggested Theresa May is at risk of joining her predecessor in making one of the biggest gaffes in British electoral history.
According to its latest estimate, the Tories will be 22 seats short of a Commons majority. A Survation poll published on Tuesday saw Mrs May’s lead over Labour shrink to just 1%, as commentators said the Jeremy Corbyn surge was showing signs of reaching Scotland.
But Opinium Research’s final poll before June 8 puts the Tories unchanged on 43% with Labour on 36%.
Mrs May called a snap election on the expectation of winning a much larger parliamentary majority to take into Brexit negotiations. David Cameron lost his job when he sought to end party divisions by calling the EU referendum.
The YouGov study, which was published yesterday, showed the Conservatives at 42% and Labour at 38%, amounting to 302 and 266 seats respectively.
The Opinium study on the other hand, has seen the Tory lead increase rather than shrink and adds to a mixed picture painted by pollsters in recent weeks.
The poll suggested the campaign has damaged the reputation of the Prime Minister, despite a likely Conservative win, with Theresa May’s net approval ratings falling from plus 21% at the start of the campaign to just plus 5% on average across all voters. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity has increased over the campaign to -7%.
Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium said: “Labour’s campaign surge appears to have crested as our final poll of the campaign is the first to see the Tory lead expand rather than contract.
“If this is the start of a trend, and it is supported by other work Opinium has done, then it is worth bearing in mind that at the last election 15% of voters made their mind up either on polling day or the day before.”
Labour’s campaign has “firmed up support among sympathetic groups” and “looks like averting the wipeout that was predicted at the beginning”.
Mr Drummond said Mrs May’s “Brexit firewall of former Ukip voters is holding steady and should be enough to guarantee her a comfortable majority”.
“However, this has been a surprising campaign with unexpected and tragic events and it’s difficult to say precisely what impact this will end up having.”