The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
Sturgeon in immigration charm offensive move
IMPACT: SNP leaderinbidto avoid £12.7bn Brexit disaster
Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to win over anti-immigration Scots as she laid out a plan to avoid a £12.7bn Brexit disaster.
The First Minister said growing the population is “perhaps the greatest national challenge” and the only way to do that in the coming decades is getting more migrants to settle in Scotland.
She pledged to tackle the immigration issue head on when she launched a Scottish Government study on the impact of Brexit yesterday.
The economic analysis warns that crashing out of the EU without a deal would cost the Scottish economy £12.7bn a year by 2030 – the equivalent of £2,300 for every person in Scotland.
Leaving the European single market and securing a Canada-style free trade deal would shrink output by £9bn a year, which amounts to £1,610 per person, the study found.
Theresa May insists the UK will leave the European single market, which allows for the free movement of EU citizens between member states.
Ms Sturgeon said the report reveals the “economic hit” from Brexit would trigger a decline in population in Scotland that is more painful than the loss in trade.
She told a press conference that low birth rates mean “all of our projected population growth will come from inward migration” up until 2041.
“Without that, our population could go into decline and with it our ability to grow our economy and fund our public services,” she said.
“That would be the stark reality for Scotland of a restriction in our ability to attract people to our country.
“And that is why, as First Minister, I have a duty to make the case for free movement no matter how difficult that is sometimes perceived to be.”
The St Andrew’s House study puts the average cost of an EU citizen’s contribution to tax revenues at £10,400 a year.
The SNP wants Scotland to have its own immigration system, whether the country remains part of the UK or not.
That plan was dealt a blow last week in a study by Prof Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, which revealed 63% of Scots want a UK-wide migration regime.
Speaking in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said the “best way” to minimise the economic damage is to stay inside the single market and retain the free flow of EU migrants. She reached out to Jeremy Corbyn to form a Commons majority in favour of that.
On Sunday, Ms Sturgeon said she would make a decision by the end of the year on whether to call an independence referendum.
The accepted timetable for the terms of Brexit to be agreed between EU chiefs and UK ministers is October.
Ms Sturgeon said once there is more clarity on the nature of Brexit in the autumn she will make the call on Indyref2, which she said could be held while Scotland is still in the EU during the two-year transition period.
Adam Tomkins, for the Scottish Conservatives, said the SNP Government has gone “completely over the top in its scaremongering”.
“It’s vital the SNP works with the UK Government to achieve the best Brexit deal and not will the process to fail in the hope of furthering its own constitutional obsessions,” he added.
Theresa May’s official spokesman said: “The Prime Minister has made clear her commitment to getting a good deal which serves the interests of all parts of the United Kingdom, and that we are confident of doing so.”
How do you like your Brexit?
Whether it is hard or soft, it seems there is a Brexit for everyone as the interminable debate over Britain’s withdrawal from the EU continues.
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is the latest to make the case for a gentle removal from the trading bloc, warning Scots stand to lose hundreds of pounds every year if a “harder” policy is pursued.
The UK Government was rightly slated for its apparent lack of forward planning following the unexpected vote to leave the EU – something the SNP has been quick to pounce upon.
Trumpeting the Scottish Government analysis as “more detailed and extensive than anything so far provided by the UK Government” (critics would say a quick scrawl on the back of a fag packet should suffice to meet that criteria), Ms Sturgeon described keeping Britain in the single market as “the least damaging option by far”.
It is not a hugely surprising conclusion, with remaining in the EU itself the First Minister’s ultimate aspiration. Nevertheless, opposition to a hard Brexit is growing. Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted she is merely interested in getting the best possible deal.
All very well, but – fresh analysis or not – away from the petty political point-scoring it is legitimate to ask whether or not we really are any further forward in knowing just what that deal will look like.