UK withdrawal could place thousands of Dundee jobs at risk

Fraser of Allander Institute says all Brexit options pose danger to the city

The full impact of a hard Brexit on Dundee’s economy has been detailed in a council report.

Dundee City Council has prepared its impact report recommending the formation of a Brexit advisory team, which would enable the local authority to develop strategies aimed at negating the effects of the UK’s withdrawal.

Councillors will meet this coming Monday to approve the formation of the council’s advisory team.

The council utilised economic forecasts from the Fraser of Allander Institute in Glasgow, who detailed a number of scenarios for the post-Brexit economy.

It is believed the UK Government will seek one of three post-Brexit models – the Norway model, where the UK keeps access to the European Economic Area (EEA); a Switzerland model, where the UK is a member of the European Free Trade Association (Efta) but not the EEA; and the final World Trade Organisation scenario, where UK has to operate WTO rules.

According to the institute, any of the three options will have negative consequences on Dundee and Scotland’s economy.

The largest reductions to the city’s workforce will be felt in the wholesale, retail, transport and food industries.

Retail, wholesale and repairs – Dundee’s largest business sector – would be worst hit, with 12,150 residents employed in these trades across 825 businesses.

Across Scotland, 25,000 jobs in these sectors are forecast to be lost in the first decade after the UK leaves the EU.

Dundee’s “disproportionately large” public sector, which accounts for 30% of the total jobs in the city, would be greatly affected by the Brexit-induced economic slowdown, potentially leading to job losses and a knock-on effect for the rest of the local economy.

The sheer size of the city’s public sector – more than 22,000 employees – means even the slightest percentage change in expenditure on public services will have a massive effect.

Brexit negotiations, as they are, still swing on three priority areas – citizens’ rights, the Irish Border and the financial “divorce” settlement.

The issue of free movement of EU citizens will have an impact on the city, according to the report, because of the potential loss of overseas visitors.

It is recognised the V&A will have not just national but international appeal.

According to the council’s report, it is “essential” for the project’s long-term success that ease of movement to the UK for EU visitors is not impaired.

Tourism in the city injects around £12 million into the local economy, but it is hoped this figure will rocket once the museum of design opens its doors.

As well as the risk to visitors having easy access to Dundee attractions, the report states the city and the UK as a whole might become entirely “unattractive” to European visitors because of its decision to leave.

Further to this, the council reports, is the impact a lack of free movement could have on both city universities.

Fraser of Allander’s recent study showed Dundee University supports more than £740m in turnover for Scottish businesses.

More than 350 staff (academic and research only) and more than 1,000 students attending the institution come from EU countries.

Picture: Mhairi Edwards. The V&A Dundee could lose out through the UK as a whole becoming entirely “unattractive” to European visitors.