Impact studies show Scotland will take a hit

UK Government reports say north-east England and West Midlands will be worst affected

Brexit impact studies released to MPs by the UK Government reveal the north-east of England and West Midlands will sustain the biggest hit to economic growth from Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union.

Scotland will also take a serious knock, regardless of the outcome of the exit talks, with a 6% dent to economic growth under the Government’s preferred outcome of a free trade deal with the EU.

Leaving with no deal will result in a 9% dip, and staying in the single market amounts to a 2.5% decline.

The north-east of England would take an 11% hit from a free trade deal, a 16% slump from no deal and a 3% fall if the UK remains in the single market.

In the West Midlands, a free trade deal would result in an 8% hit to growth, compared with 13% under “no deal”, and 2.5% in the single market.

London will take the least damage, according to the forecasts that ministers were forced to release after they were leaked to the media and amid pressure from Labour and pro-EU Tories.

MPs have been reading the documents, which were prepared by the Department for Exiting the EU, under controlled conditions, but the figures have been leaked.

Northern Ireland also looks likely to fare badly, with an 8% fall in growth in a free trade deal, 12% from no deal and 2.5% in a single market.

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: “This is a damning outlook for Britain.

“The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.

“The Government need to start being clear what they are fighting for.”

Earlier, Brussels released papers showing it wants to put in place a method to rapidly curtail the UK’s single market benefits if it breaches agreements on a transition deal.

Asked if she would see off any “threats” from the EU, Mrs May said: “As I have said right from the very beginning we will hear noises off, we will hear all sorts of things being said about positions that are being taken.

“What matters is the positions we take in the negotiations as we sit down and negotiate the best deal.”

Ministers in the EU exit and trade (strategy and negotiations) subcommittee considered the issues of immigration and Northern Ireland yesterday and are expected to discuss the crucial issue of the UK’s future relationship with Brussels today.

Meanwhile, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has been asked to consider whether Britons living in the 27 other EU member states can retain their rights as EU citizens following Brexit after a case was brought by Britons living in the Netherlands.

This is a damning outlook for Britain. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK. LIB DEM BREXIT SPOKESMAN TOM BRAKE

Picture: PA. Theresa May did not seem too concerned with suggestions the EU could punish the UK should it breach any agreements on a transition deal.