Filling Panini album ‘will cost around £774’

Mathematician works out average cost of completing collection

The average cost for a single collector to complete Panini’s World Cup 2018 sticker book is £773.60, a leading mathematician has calculated.

Professor Paul Harper has considered the best case scenario and the most likely cost of filling this year’s album after the Italian brand announced the cost of a pack of five stickers was increasing from 50p to 80p.

With 32 squads of players, as well as stickers for managers, stadiums and World Cup legends, the task of completing the album is considerable.

The maths expert from Cardiff University’s School of Mathematics said the minimum cost of collecting all 682 stickers was £109.60, based on buying 137 packets and never getting a duplicate but he said this was “extremely unlikely”.

Prof Harper then turned his attention to the more likely scenario. He said: “The first sticker you buy is absolutely guaranteed not to be a duplicate.

“The second sticker you get has a 681/682 (99.85%) chance of being a new sticker.

“The third sticker you get has a 680/682 (99.7%) chance of being a new sticker, and so on.”

Prof Harper then added up all of the probabilities of getting a new sticker to obtain a formula, which he adjusted using conditional probabilities because the stickers come in packs of five.

His calculations showed that on average you would need to buy 4,832 stickers, or 967 packets, to complete the book, costing £773.60.

Prof Harper’s calculations showed once you had only 19 stickers left to collect, you would still need to buy 483 packets to complete the album.

Picture: PA. In addition to 32 squads of players, the album features stickers for managers, stadiums and World Cup legends.