Sound and fury signifying nothing

The SNP will publish its long-awaited (but only by them) Growth Commission report this week, which, said Nicola Sturgeon, will be the launchpad for restarting the independence debate.

Given the state of Scotland’s economy, surely the only point of a Growth Commission would be to restart growth. But the nationalists believe a 400-page document compiled by one of their own – former SNP MSP turned banker Andrew Wilson – will offer a persuasive enough argument of the economic case for secession.

Ms Sturgeon told ITV’s Robert Peston on Sunday: “Once we get some clarity – which hopefully we will in the autumn – about the Brexit outcome and the future relationship between the UK and the EU, then I will consider again the timing of an independence referendum.”

For all of us this is a forlorn prospect, revisiting the divisive national introspection of 2014, but for the SNP there could not be a worse moment to resurrect the hopes of the Yes movement. For a start, the most recent polls show fewer than a third of Scots want to break up Britain – just 30%, according to an ICM poll for the policy exchange thinktank, are opposed to the union, while 52 % are in favour.

But even without voting intentions to hold them back, the nationalists should be restrained by the state of much of this nation’s public services and institutions.

The Scottish NHS, under SNP management for more than 10 years, is beset by funding scandals, missed targets and crippling shortages of staff that recently saw private agencies drafted in from England to plug gaps. And because of nationalist policies, there are too few doctors being trained in Scotland to meet future demand. It was revealed last week the cap on places for Scots at Scottish universities means just one in six applicants is admitted to study medicine here.

The situation in Scotland’s schools is just as grim, with some head teachers having to appeal to parents to teach classes. No wonder Scottish education on the SNP’s watch has seen literacy and numeracy rates plummet and the chasm between the achievements of rich and poor kids deepen.

As for the economy, Scotland continues to lag far behind the rest of the UK. Scottish Government statistics last month showed annual growth was 0.8% higher than the previous 12 months, but the UK economy grew by 1.8% over the same period.

The SNP Government has the power to strengthen the economy but by making Scotland the highest-taxed part of the UK, it risks slowing down the property market further, stifling construction, and discouraging business and investment. As Lord Darling, ex-chancellor and the leader of the Better Together campaign, said on Monday, the economic case for independence is worse now than during the last plebiscite.

The SNP cannot blame Westminster or Brexit for this, although, of course, it will try to – and therein lies Ms Sturgeon’s survival strategy. She must know her cause has become a hopeless one but that her own leadership depends on fighting it, anyway.

To hold a second ballot she will need permission from Westminster, which, Theresa May has already said, she will not get while Brexit is still being settled.

By throwing down the gauntlet, Ms Sturgeon guarantees the mobilisation of the Yes movement, which will duly march against the repression of the UK Government. But she can also be confident of not having to put independence to the test and facing certain defeat. Restarting the debate – which has never really stopped in nationalist circles – may sound alarming to most of us but, in the end, it won’t amount to anything.

Picture: PA. The game within the game: Ms Sturgeon will know the case for independence cannot currently be won but must fight it, anyway, for the sake of maintaining her own position.