Farmers to prepare for a worrying year ahead

The future stability of global food prices is threatened by a “melting pot’” of risks, consisting of trade wars, disease and extreme weather, according to Rabobank, the international agribusiness bank.

Warning farmers to be prepared for a difficult and worrying year in 2019, Stefan Vogel, the bank’s head of agri-commodity markets, said it was difficult to remember a time when there were so many threats emerging.

Listing the major concerns for next year as the US/China trade dispute, African Swine Fever (ASF), Avian Influenza (AI) and the rapid approach of the next El Niño, the bank’s annual-outlook report identifies trade wars as the biggest threat, with their potential to further increase feed-cost burdens on the livestock sector.

The report also warned that pork and poultry producers, in addition to being the biggest consumers of purchased feeds, face rising ASF and AI impacts, perhaps leading to a significant increase in trade volatility.

“With the severity of disease outbreaks showing no signs of being curbed, biosecurity will become a higher business priority for livestock producers in 2019,” said the bank’s animalprotein specialist, Justin Sherrard.

“Major disease outbreaks are affecting global-trade flows and consumer preferences and, as a result, we expect to see a shift to beef and seafood consumption in some markets.”