ANALYSIS

The shambles of pulling today’s Brexit vote is a new low for Theresa May’s premiership. But what could the coming days bring?

The Prime Minister, who is under pressure to put the delay to MPs for signoff, says she will now “go boldly” back to Brussels to improve her deal.

Before then, the beleaguered Tory leader faces the very real threat of a no confidence vote, which Labour are poised to trigger with the support of the SNP and others.

The Maidenhead MP is likely to win that but at the price of yet another major blow to her fragile credibility. If the opposition do not succeed in toppling the PM, then her own backbenches might. Just 48 Conservative MPs need to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee, which represents rank-andfile Tories in the Commons, to force a leadership contest. What may save her is the dearth of suitable candidates to replace her.

Mrs May yesterday stood by her deal but said she would seek changes to the controversial backstop, an insurance policy preventing an Irish hard border that would keep the UK in a customs territory with the EU without the freedom to walk away.

She relies on European goodwill to re-open negotiations, given they have said that would not be possible. The EU wants Brexit to serve as a warning to others considering withdrawal.

However, it also has an interest in an orderly Brexit – and would sooner bail out Mrs May than see the likes of Boris Johnson take her place. They may have something up their sleeve.

It would take more than warm assurances over the backstop to turn the tide in the Commons for Mrs May’s deal. And she will be under renewed pressure from within her cabinet to pursue a Brexit plan B, such as staying in the single market, mimicking the Canada model or even a second EU referendum.