Reduction in recession risk

ECONOMY: New ONS statistics show rise in GDP for July

The economy grew by 0.3% in July, reducing the risk that the UK is heading for a recession, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Officials said construction, manufacturing and the all-important services sectors all grew in July, although agriculture fell.

However, averaging out over the three months, only services grew, which meant that overall the UK economy flatlined in the three months to July, sitting firmly at 0%.

ONS head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: “GDP growth was flat in the latest three months, with falls in construction and manufacturing.

“While the largest part of the economy, services sector, returned to growth in the month of July, the underlying picture shows services growth weakening through 2019.

“The trade deficit narrowed due to falling imports, particularly unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals and road vehicles in the three months to July.”

There had previously been a 0.2% fall in GDP in the second quarter of the year, and if there are two consecutive falling quarters the country is officially in a recession.

However, yesterday’s latest statistics from the ONS only go up until July – before the latest political uncertainty and a series of closely-watched data from around the world that show economies slowing.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at the EY Item Club, said: “While GDP growth of 0.3% month on month in July looks to go a long way towards guaranteeing that the economy will return to growth in the third quarter, disappointing survey evidence relating to manufacturing, construction and services activity suggests the economy is currently finding life challenging.”