Stark impact of no-deal withdrawal revealed in government documents

A no-deal Brexit could trigger major hold-ups at channel ports, electricity price increases, shortages of some foods and delays to medicine imports, government documents reveal.

HGV delays of between one-anda-half and two-and-a-half days would occur at Dover and public disorder could increase, according to Operation Yellowhammer “reasonable worst case planning assumptions” released in response to MPs voting for it to happen.

The document says: “There are likely to be significant electricity (price) increases for consumers.”

It adds: “Protests and counterprotests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource.

“There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.”

The government describes the scenario outlined in the document, part of which has been redacted, as the “reasonable worst case scenario”.

The document also says: “Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.”

The document notes that day one after the scheduled EU exit on October 31 is a Friday, “which may not be to our advantage” and may coincide with the end of the October half-term school holidays.

The government dossier says France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods “on day 1 no deal” – D1ND as the document refers to it – and have built infrastructure and IT systems to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime.

The document says: “On D1ND, between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs.

“The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold ‘unready’ HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow.

“The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to three months before it improves by a significant level to around 5070% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer.

“Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France.”

The document says UK citizens travelling to and from the EU “may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts”.

“This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover where juxtaposed controls are in place.”