No-deal risks the Union reaching ‘breaking point’

A no-deal Brexit would be highly controversial in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and risks taking the Union to “breaking point”, a leading think tank has warned.

The Institute for Government (IFG) said that since Boris Johnson became prime minister, there has been a decline in engagement with the devolved governments.

In a report, called No-deal Brexit and the Union, the think tank said: “A no-deal Brexit would be a high stakes gamble with the future of the Union.”

The authors said short-term no-deal planning has diverted attention away from longer-term questions about the relationship between Westminster and devolved governments.

The IFG said meaningful and systematic engagement between the UK and devolved governments will be necessary for negotiations on future international agreements, including the UK-EU relationship and other trade deals.

“No deal will mean no transition period, so these unresolved issues will need to be addressed urgently, in what will be an even more charged political atmosphere,” the report said.

The think tank said a no-deal Brexit will “increase the risks faced by the Union itself”, adding: “In Northern Ireland, no deal and direct rule would make a swift return to power sharing unlikely. Pressure for a border poll on the island of Ireland is likely to increase.”

The report warns that a no-deal scenario will have “particularly severe consequences” for Northern Ireland, and the Scottish Government intends to hold a second independence referendum.