Warning English visitors could bring fresh spike in infections

Differing approaches to easing lockdown could lead to a resurgence in infections north of the border, one expert in public health has warned.

Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said England’s policy of reopening as much as possible in order to breathe life into the economy could have a knock-on effect on cases in Scotland.

And she warned if infection incidence increased because of a relaxing of guidelines, a return to school “as normal” for children in August could be impacted.

She was speaking as the Scottish Tories called on the Scottish Government to review its two-metre policy, which differs from the rest of the UK, where people only have to distance by “one metre plus”.

Prof Sridhar predicted there could be an increase in the number of coronavirus infections in late July as a result of lockdown restrictions being eased.

Speaking on Politics Scotland, she said: “England’s strategy is to reopen as soon as possible to get the economy open.

“But the problem is you still have a substantial number of cases – the latest estimates of between 3,000-4,000 – and (due to) the behaviour since then it is probably even higher, somewhere like 6,000 daily cases.

“It seems like in England they will continue opening up until they feel the NHS capacity might be breached, then they will look at local lockdown or measures such as that.”

She said there was a risk of infection of coronavirus increasing because of the “open border” between Scotland and England, adding: “If Scotland was an island like New Zealand, and we could just lock ourselves away and have checks on the border and on arrivals, it would make it very straight forward.

“Looking at our figures... we are in quite a good situation going into the summer, but obviously (Scotland being an island) is not the case, so we need to look at the next best solution, which is controlling the infection... it is the best way of getting back to normal and getting children back into school.

“If we see numbers jump up in July because of easing of restrictions, it presents a very difficult situation for August.

“July is the really crucial month for people, as things open up, to follow the rules and guidance and be sensible.”

She added: “As long as we have people being sensible in shops, using face masks which are a great tool, you can block transmission in a way that is quite simple.”

Jackson Carlaw, Scottish Conservative leader, said “international evidence” already exists which would allow for the Scottish Government to relax its two-metre social distance rule, aligning with the rest of the UK.

He added: “Our message is that the Scottish Government must start to revitalise our economy, but so can we – we can get out there and spend money.”